2006 Governors
I think these type of posts are a bit overdone, and, given that the 2006 elections are still two years away, of questionable worth. They are, however, still a lot of fun. So, here's my shot at a 2006 gubenatorial preview. There are 36 races, so I'll do six at a time. First up: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California and Colorado...
Alabama - Gov Bob Riley (GOP) seeking reelection
Riley's reelection should be fun to watch. A conservative, bible-thumping Republican from a conservative, bible-thumping state, Riley is in a bit of trouble with the rank and file because of his tax proposal a few years back. Riley proposed increasing taxes to increase the quality of education and social services in Alabama, arguing that it was the Christian thing to do. His proposal was put to popular referendum and failed miserably. After the debacle, Riley looked like a one-termer; a poll taken in November, 2003, gave Riley a 25% approval rating. Though Riley seems to have recovered a bit from his troubles (a June poll put him at 48%), he's still vulnerable to a primary challenge.
On our side speculation is centered on two candidates. The Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley, and former Gov. Don Siegelman. Siegelman lost to Riley in a close 2002 race, but has since run into a bit of legal trouble. So far Siegelman looks to be innocent of any wrongdoing, but the taint of scandal might be too much to overcome. Lucy Baxley is probably a better candidate. Baxley has been elected statewide three times (twice as Treasurer and once as Lieutenant Governor) and comes from a well-known political family.
Overall, I think Riley will be reelected after surviving a primary challenge and a spirited campaign with Baxley.
Alaska - Gov Frank Murkowski (GOP) seeking reelection
The Alabama and Alaska races are a bit similar in that both Governors might be in danger in their own party. Murkowski drew the ire of conservatives by breaking his promise not to raise taxes, and also was heavily criticized for appointing his daughter to his old Senate seat. Since the people of Alaska voted to reelect his daughter in 2004, Murkowski is probably a bit safer on the latter charge, but he is still vulnerable to a primary challenge. One possibility might be Murkowski's own Lt. Gov, Loren Lemon, who endorsed Lisa Murkowski's primary challenger, Mike Miller, in 2004. The only poll I could find on this race is from spring 2003 and it gave Murkowski a 36% approval rating.
The Democratic bench looks pretty baren from my point of view. We could run Fran Ulmer, who used to be Lt. Gov and lost to Murkowski in 2002, but I don't know if she is interested. Maybe we could convince Tony Knowles to run???
I don't think there is a democrat in the state who can make this race, even with Murkowski's vulnerabilities.
Arizona - Gov Janet Napolitano (Dem) seeking reelection
Napolitano is a rising star in the Democratic party and seems well-positioned to win reelection. I saw her speak at a domestic violence prevention conference about a year ago and was really impressed. She's knowledgeable, articulate and the national papers have mentioned her as a possible 2008 Pres contender. The latest poll I could find is from late spring 2003 and gives Napolitano a 66% approval rating.
The speculation regarding GOP challengers seems largely centered on the AZ House delegation: Reps Flake, Hayworth and Sheddegg. Hayworth is the most likely candidate. He has a term limits pledge due in 2006, and talked up the pledge during this past election, indicating that he means to keep it. Flake made a similar pledge, but has been sending signals that he intends to break it and run for reelection. Sheddegg seems to be the odd man out, his name is tossed around as a possibility, but that's as far as it goes.
Overall, I think this is one of those borderline races; the kind that, in part due to the partisian makeup of the state, could evolve into a nailbiter, but more likely will be fairly uncompetitive.
Arkansas - Open Seat, Gov Mike Huckabee (GOP) is term limited
This race could be a lot of fun. Both sides could have wide-open primaries featuring some big names. On the Republican side there are two big names: Lt. Gov Win Rockefeller and Homeland Security Undersecretarty and former Congressman Asa Hutchinson. Both come from established Arkansas families, Hutchinson's brother Tim was a US Senator (lost in 2002 to Mark Pryor) and Rockefeller's father was Governor (his granddad was John D.). Hutchinson has a great GOP pedigree, he was an impeachment manager when he was in the House, and in the Bush Administration he has spent time both at the DEA and now Homeland Security. Rockefeller, on the other hand, has the potential to self-finance and has been Lt. Gov since 1996. I think Hutchinson has to be the slight favorite, but Rockefeller is not going to back down...this will be a real rumble.
We've got a strong field on the Democratic side where Attorney General Mike Beebe, U.S. Rep Mike Ross and Wes Clark are all possibilities. Beebe is the most likely to run. He was a State Senator for 18 years before running unopposed for Attorney General. Long rumored a gubernatorial candidate, this may be Beebe's year. Mike Ross is in his third term and recently has been telling his supporters that he's considering a bid. He, like Beebe, was unopposed in his last campaign. Finally there is Wes Clark, who seems like an unlikely candidate given that he turned down a chance to run for this office in 2002. There has been a lot of buzz about a potential Clark candidacy, much of it fueled by the Clinton crowd, but no overt sign from the General himself. Clark could be beginning to prepare himself for a run, however. In a recent appearance on "Hardball" Clark sounded a bit more conservative on social issues like abortion and gay marriage than he did during the Presidential campaign. Still, I would be a bit surprised if he ran.
This race is a true toss-up. There is no predicting who the nominees will be, and as such no predicting who the final winner will be. One thing is certain, we've got a shot in Arkansas.
California - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (GOP) seeking reelection
Right now the mainstream media seems stuck repeating a "Schwarzenegger is invincible" mantra, but I'm not so sure. Yes, he has great polling numbers and has proven to be a very shrewd politico, but I think he just might be vulnerable to the right type of candidate. What is the right type you ask? Let me answer by telling you who I think is NOT the right type: traditional establishment Dems like A.G. Lockyer or Tres. Angelides. These guys would get the Bustemante treatment, blown away by Arnold's star power. Democrats need to beat Schwarzenegger at his own game by nominating their own non-traditional candidate. I have no suggestions at this point, but does anyone know what Marty Sheen is up to now that his run the "West Wing" is coming to an end???
Remember, Schwarzenegger has never run a real campaign. He's never had to face the gruel of a full gubernatorial campaign in a state the size of California. He's never had to go one-on-one in a debate. He's a circus candidate who won a circus election. All that being said, Arnold is a formidable opponent and, at the moment, he's got to be favored to win reelection.
Colorado - Open Seat, Gov Bill Owens (GOP) is term limited.
This is another great pick-up opportunity. Democrats had great success in Colorado in 2004. Despite Bush's win here, we picked up a Senate seat, a House seat and control of the state legislature. Not only that, we've got some great candidates waiting in the wings. The front-runner has got to be U.S. Rep Mark Udall, who represents Boulder. Udall briefly ran for Senate this past year but bowed out after Salazar jumped in the race, the tacit understanding being that Udall would run for Governor in 2006. Udall has a lot going for him: a famous name, fundraising ability and a reputation as a moderate. That being said, he does represent Boulder, which has a reputation for being the San Francisco of Colorado. The other name being bandied about is Rutt Bridges, who was running for Senate in 2004 before Campbell decided to retire, and who ultimately deferred to Salazar. Bridges main strength as a candidate is that he's loaded. In fact, his financial backing is a major reason why the Colorado legislature turned blue this year. Frankly, I'm surprised not to hear Mike Miles mentioned as a possibility. Miles ran a grassroots Wellstone-esque campaign for Senate in 2006 and did surprisingly well. Other long-shot possibilities are Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and fmr Sen. Gary Hart.
The Republicans have an equally deep bench in Colorado. The top tier includes fmr. Rep. Scott McInnis, Rep. Bob Beauprez and Lt. Gov Jane Norton. The frontrunner is McInnis, unless current Governor Bill Owens gets a job in the Bush Administration before his term is up. In that case, Norton would be elevated to the top job and would have some major advantages against McInnis. But that possibility looks less likely as the days go on and most high profile Administration jobs are filled. Owens is going through a high profile divorce which may have hurt his chances, and after the CO GOP debacle in 2004 his star may be fading. I think Beauprez is a less likely contender, but should he run he would make a formidable candidate. Beauprez's district has more Democrats than Republicans, but he has mastered it. Should he opt instead for reelection to the House, he should win easily.
The most lilkley matchup, Udall v. McInnis, would be considered a toss-up in the mainstream media. Still, I have a hunch that Udall will be the next Governor of Colorado.