The question is no longer whether Kerry can win. He can. The real question is can he win with a mandate, because that's what it's going to take to repair our foreign relations with the free world.
He must oust the Bush regime unequivocally, in order to lead effectively and convince the world that the arrogance of the Bush admistration was an aberration.
His greatest danger now is his own party. The DNC has been salivating over the so called centrist vote, for far too long. The new power base is in the old 60s liberals who have been shaken out of their complacency by three years of Bush and newly registered youth who are equally alarmed and are becoming engaged in the process again.
These are the new progressive Dems, the spin-proof voters, educated by the internet and they want their party back. The DNC would do well to recognize the secret to success is in embracing the progressive agenda and returning the party to its left of center roots.
Anything less and they will continue to hemmorage votes to third parties and Kerry risks a lackluster finish that will adversely impact his ablility to lead us out of the quagmire.