So since I've gotten access to nifty electoral calculators, I've been envisioning a Dean scenario that involves wins in the Southwest + W. Virginia. I don't think that's likely if John Kerry is the nominee. But I do think that Kerry's got a winning coalition of his own. Read on...
Basically I thought Dean's victory would be Gore states + at least NV, WV, NH. Maybe AZ would come in as well. His fiscal conservatism and libertarianism on drugs and guns would help him in those contests. He'd probably also get a much more solid lead in New Mexico than Gore did.
But Kerry changes the dynamics. I think his gun control positions will mean we have to write off some of the Southern swing states. But his ability to be more liberal (if he wants) on trade issues could let him carry some of the other ones.
This is the situation I see for Kerry:
Sure Gore '00 states: ME, VT, NY, MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, DC, MN, IL, WA, CA, HI. EV Total: 193.
I think Kerry will carry all of these easily. Most are in his backyard and they're all blue and getting bluer. IL and WA might be something of a fight, but I think we've got the upper hand in both places.
Probable Gore '00 states (OR states that Kerry will need if he's going to win at all): MI, OR, PA, IA. EV Total: 52.
These will be competitive. Oregon was scarily close last time, but it also had a big Nader factor. Michigan was close too but with Bush pissing off both Labor and Arabs, Kerry should be able to pick up some significant support. PA is the uncertain one here. That whole "Alabama in the middle" group might be pretty unhappy about Kerry's views on guns and on social issues. But if we lose PA, we lose the election. So Kerry will need to carry this. His wife might help immensely here.
Uncertain Gore '00 states: NM, WI. EV Total: 15.
These states went to Gore by scarily small margins. I'm still convinced that Dem turnout in WI was depressed due to the Nader factor, even if not all the people dissuaded from voting for Gore ended up going to the polls to vote for Nader. But the shocking closeness of the thing makes me scared. NM was close as well. And I don't know how equipped Kerry is to win it. Despite his best efforts, he's nowhere near as moderate as Gore was. That could tend to hurt him among Southern swing voters. The military service may help him win over swingers here, though.
Also, the Democratic population in both of these states is famously liberal. I truly believe that winning both of these states will mean Kerry will have to somehow engineer a REAL peace between his faction and the Deaniacs. If the party goes through with these purges, I can see a lot of very important voters in these states just staying home.
Probable Bush '00 states: NH EV Total: 4
It's right next door and it gets bluer and bluer every election cycle. I think that this is Kerry's most likely Bush pickup.
Important Bush '00 Pickup Possibilities: OH (20), FL (27), MO (11), AZ (10), NV (5), WV (5).
Well these are the big ones. I am not sanguine about Kerry's ability to carry Southern or culturally conservative states. His late conversion to squishy DLC moderation can't convince anyone-- the GOP can still wave his "left of Ted Kennedy" ADA record around-- so he'll have to make it up with biography and attitude. I'm afraid that we'll see some pretty egregious "Sistah Souljah" moments as Kerry tries to win these states. That might set him up against the newly aroused Dem base. He'll have to walk a very tight rope here if he wants to win.
I think the most important possibilities are OH and NV. Ohio should be ours by rights. It's a state with a huge industrial past that's lost way, way too many jobs in the last 4 years. This IS the Rest Belt. It's got a large Labor movement and a number of fairly significant cities. It also has a pretty big minority population for a Midwestern state. The problem is the crap-tastic state party, which has proven again and again to be completely ineffectual. It's gotten so bad that their BEST possible Senate candidate was Jerry Springer. Yes, THAT Jerry Springer. This could definitely be a place where making nice with the Deaniacs could be a huge help, because any sort of organization in Ohio would be a step up. Kerry's closeness with the Labor movement should help him here. Also, I recall reading that Kerry is a good friend of native son and American space hero John Glenn. I think he should milk that relationship for all that it's worth. Playing up patriotism can never hurt. If he can make a good case for Labor, or at least for populism, I think he could really make a splash in Ohio. It's his best big pickup opportunity IMHO.
NV should be good for Kerry since the environment is the issue that Bush is most vulnerable on there, and it happens to be Kerry's major issue. Hispanic outreach will be big here and in AZ, although I'm not incredibly confident of his ability to win AZ. Again, his appeal to these Southern swing voters is not huge IMHO... it rests on his "war hero" status, but I'm not sure that'll be worth much when the GOP gets through with exaggerating his "war protestor" status.
Picking Bob Graham OR a prominent Hispanic politician as VP would help immensely in these states... especially FL (of course). Of course picking a Hispanic running mate might really, really piss off the black community (who remembers Al Sharpton in the NY mayoral election? Who doubts for a second he'd engage in the same base-splitting behavior?).
Unlikely Bush '00 Swing State pickups: AR (6), LA(9), TN (11), KY (8), GA (15), SC (8), CO (9).
Edwards might be able to pick some of these up. I don't think Kerry could... he's too culturally alien here. And while Dean was widely mocked for his attempt to "learn to speak about religion", Kerry hasn't even put that much effort into it. What religion is the guy anyway? We know he's got Jewish roots, but what does he practice? It's fine with ME if he's non-practicing but we can DEFINITELY kiss away the South if he is. In general, I think Southern populism with overtly protectionist overtones is the only thing that might pick up these states. I'm unconvinced that an inveterate pro-NAFTA free trader would be much good here.
States that are staying with Bush: VA, NC, AL, MS, IN, OK, TX, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, AK. Total EV's 133.
So I think that if Kerry wins, this is how it'll happen:
Kerry: ME, NH, VT, NY, MA, CT, RI, PA, NJ, DC, MD, DE, MI, OH, WI, IL, MN, IA, WA, OR, CA, NV, HI Total EV's: 284. LANDSLIDE = those plus FL, AZ, NM, and WV giving him a gargantuan 331 EV's. But I don't think that'll happen.
Bush: FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, KY, TN, IN, AL, MS, MO, AR, LA, OK, TX, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, CO, AZ, NM. Total EV's: 254. LANDSLIDE = winning OH, winning PA, winning WI. If he wins all 3, he completely screws us (and the country) with 305 EV's.