"If I can make it there
I'll make it anywhere
It's up to you, New York, New York"
- Fred Ebb
First there were nine, then eight, then seven, six, and five... the Kerry-Edwards race that I said would be coming after New Hampshire is now here.
And - follow my analysis - it all comes down to the New York primary on March 2nd...
First things first: Tonight's near-stumble in Wisconsin is not a bad situation for John Kerry. Thanks to John Edwards' strong second-place showing there, national media attention will remain fixated on the Democratic race, Bush will continue to not get many words in edgewise, and Kerry will be up against Mr. Nice Guy - Edwards - who doesn't want to burn his bridges for a possible VP nomination, instead of Dr. Scream and his increasingly bitter mission to drive up Kerry's negatives.
Edwards, by way of contrast, is going to Broadway... to audition for the role of understudy.
The math:
After tonight, John Kerry will have more than 600 delegates toward the Democratic nomination.
He needs 2,161 to win the nomination.
So he's short by about 1560.
Edwards only has about 180. He needs almost 2,000 more to win the nomination.
Dean has almost 200, but he's out before Friday. Sharpton has 15, Kucinich has 2.
The schedule:
On February 24, a week from today, Utah, Hawaii, and Idaho vote, but only about 60 delegates are at stake.
Then, on March 2nd, two weeks from today, more than 1,000 delegates are available in a single day, half of them in California and New York. The rest, in order of delegate ranking: Ohio, Massachusetts, Georgia, Minnesota, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Seven days later, more than 400 delegates are at stake, most in Texas and Florida, the rest in Louisiana and Mississippi.
If Edwards doesn't knock Kerry off in New York, I don't know how he does it anywhere. Edwards doesn't have the dough to compete in California, and the major media markets there are so disperse that a "free media strategy" is impossible in only two weeks. Half of New York state is in the Big Apple media market, which loves a good show, and the rest is upstate where Edwards can afford TV. New York is thus where Edwards and Kerry will have their apocalyptic battle.
This is really Kerry's to lose. It's gonna be very hard for Edwards to make inroads into the Northern black and Jewish votes that are so massive in New York. Kerry towered over his opponents in all Northern black precincts to date, and split them in South Carolina with Edwards.
Here's some free advice to Kerry's Inner Hulk (the meme returns!): Dump the stump speech, Hulkie, and start trying out some new tunes. You've been using the same words since Iowa. The audience practically knows it by heart. It's time for some new hit songs. Let's hear some serious policy speeches over the next two weeks, on specific issue areas, and make one of them on Crime, Race, and Civil Liberties. And ditch the parade of endorsement press conferences, too. Nobody cares about bigshots. They'll push them out of line to get a taxi just like anybody else. This ain't Hooterville, Hulkie. This is New York.
New York has recovered from its brief post 9/11 repatriation already: Once again, it is, culturally, an island off the coast of the continental United States.
Earth to John Kerry: You have one big powerful ace card to play there, and New Yorkers are gonna love her. Bring out the big gun, sailor: Bring out Teresa.
Teresa Heinz Kerry, more than John Kerry, or John Edwards, has that intangible something that New Yorkers love. She's got depth without being a drag. She's got class without being snobby. She's got grace and star quality. She's international and she's a tennis mom all at once. Turn her loose in the media capital of the world, on the boroughs, on Long Island, and Westchester, and in Buffalo, and Syracuse, and that corner called Pennsyltucky where they make Zippo lighters and root for the Pittburgh Steelers... Put her on all the morning shows - without you, Hulkie (you do the late night stuff, give her the room to run her plays as she does them) - tour with her in the South Bronx, in Spanish Harlem, in Bed-Stuy, in Astoria, listen as she rolls her R's and tells the folks about her marido... and watch her light up that harbor with her torch.