I think it might be amusing to characterize the democratic candidates in a lighthearted way using models from the post-TV era of American politics to predict who might win, since history is supposed to repeat itself (or is it?)
First John Kerry. Kerry is a very good politician with a solid liberal record from Massachusetts. Not very inspirational, but solid. Closest match is Mike Dukakis. Dukakis was a very good candidate from Massachusetts who was liberal, a technocrat, and solid, though not inspirational. Dukakis faltered when Joe Sasso, his campaign manager was forced out of his campaign for dirty tricks against Biden. That left him at the mercy of Lee Atwater. It an imperfect match in that Kerry of course inherited wealth, Dukakis was self-made.
Second, John Edwards. Edwards is reminiscent of Clinton, handsome, very smooth and articulate. He is a very good campaigner as Clinton was.
Third, Howard Dean. Dean is a reformer who wants to take his country back. There is a tremendous resonance with the "We the People" campaign of Edmund Jerry Brown in 1992. See http://www.4president.org/speeches/jerrybrown1992announcement.htm
for just how much resonance there is.
Fourth, Wesley Clark. Well I can't think of an appropriate model. The closest is Eisenhower, but he was a Republican and his WWII fame made him unbeatable. Clark is more of a complete anomaly. He is liberal and much better looking than Ike, yet still not well known to the American public. One similarity: They both seem to be too honorable to be politicians. I think we'll have to leave Clark out of this analysis.
OK, now let's predict what will happen: it's Clinton vs Dukakis vs Brown contest. Dukakis was a very strong candidate in 1988 primaries, while Clinton had alot of trouble in 1992 (he barely won NY against Tsongas, though Tsongas had essentially given up) and Brown won several states (ME,CT) even though he limited himself to $100/donor. Dean, like Brown has been marginalized by the press, and has made some mistakes. I guess I would pick Clinton, on the basis of his great campaigning skills.
So we have a winner: Clinton, I mean Edwards will win the nomination.
Anyone have their own ideas of comparisons with past candidates?