That's what several people here at Kos have argued. It's also what Republicans believed in 1992. It failed then. There's no reason to believe it's any truer today. So, instead of everyone freaking out, let's take a look at some of the issues involved.
Clinton won despite the lack of popularity for gay rights
Gay rights were not popular in 1992, and Clinton was the most pro-gay major candidate the nation had seen to that date. At the time, the major issues were the extension of civil rights (primarily non-discrimination in employment) and the military. In both issues, majorities or pluralities of the population disagreed with equality for gays and lesbians. Some numbers (Taken from Alan S. Yang. 1997. "Trends: Attitudes Toward Homosexuality."
Public Opinion Quarterly. 61(3): 477-507.) (Disclaimer: Many of the numbers are drawn from after Clinton's election. However, looking at longer term trends, there is no reason to believe that public support for the extension of civil rights protections to gay men and lesbians was any higher prior to these points)
Question: Do you think that the laws which protect the civil rights of racial or religious minorities should be used to protect the rights of homosexuals? (8/92)
Yes: 44
No: 47
Question: As you may know, there are civil rights laws for blacks, other minorities and women. Would you favor extending these civil rights laws to include homosexuals? (4/93)
Favor: 46
Oppose: 48
Question: Do you think homosexuals should get protection under civil rights laws in the way racial minorities and women have been protected or should homosexuals get no civil rights protection? (7/94)
Should get protection: 26
Should get no protection: 66
Of course, the wording of questions has an impact on the answers that are received. >The framing of an issue matters. But, what these numbers do show is that during the Clinton election campaign and into the early years of his term, gay rights did not enjoy widespread popularity. The simple fact that same-sex marriage is unpopular, like the fact that gay rights were unpopular in the early 1990s, has little predictive value.
The fact that same-sex marriage is unpopular tells us nothing about its salience as an election issue
Gay marriage today is unpopular. Current polling seems to indicate about a 60-40 split against. However, what these polls don't tell us is how important the issue is for folks. They may be opposed but we don't know how that opposition ranks in terms of the issues people will use in determining for whom they will vote. Pocketbook issues dominated in 1992. Gay rights just weren't that important in the overall picture.
More to the point, the hostile tone of the Republican approach in 1992 probably cost them votes. Buchanan's speech at the Convention--which Molly Ivins so memorably said "sounded better in the original German"--may have been red meat to the base, but it also helped to turn off other parts of the electorate. While we can probably assume that Rove and Co. learned from the mistakes of that campaign, someone from the Family Research Council or some such organization will undoubtedly spout out some hateful stuff. The trick will be to tie those hateful attitudes to Shrub. Americans may not like same-sex marriage, but they're not too fond of hate and intolerance either.
The questions that arise from this are strategic: How can the Democratic nominee frame the issue to tie the Republicans and what they're doing to the hate and intolerance that is driving it? How can the Democratic nominee focus attention on issues that are more important to people (like job losses) than their opposition to same-sex marriage?
Gay voters may be more important on this issue
In 2000, it's estimated that upwards of 25% of gay voters cast their ballot for Bush. The Uncle Mary's over at the Log Cabin were, at the time, bragging that gay votes helped provide the margin of victory in Florida (of course, they weren't going to acknowledge the illegitimate SCOTUS decision). This issue could cost Bush many of those gay votes. Even Crazy Andy Sullivan is reconsidering support for Bush because of this. If Sully's losing faith, more rational gay folks who thought Bush wouldn't be "that bad" on gay issues may also turn away from Shrub. This could mean a pick-up of votes.
Let's settle down
The election isn't lost. We don't know yet how it will play out. Strategic questions definitely arise from this issue, and those must be addressed. So, please, let's settle down a little and get to work. Both same-sex marriage and the removal of Bush are possible.