I had thought it was a little too early for this post, but since people are already discussing the 2008 presidential election, what the heck. Besides, all the 2004 Senate races are pretty well delineated (if not decided) and this should be interesting.
There are going to be a LOT of high profile Senate races next year, and I thought I would look at the ones that will be really crucial. So here goes.
Nevada: Nevada is trending more and more Democratic, and John Ensign is popular, but no unassailably so. Congresswoman Shelley Berkley and Mayor Oscar Goodman are both popular with Las Vegas roots, and would make strong candidates.
Vermont: Utah will change it's motto to "Abortions Rule" before a Republican is elected to the Senate from Vermont, but with Independent Jeffords probably retiring, this will be an interesting one. Bernie Sanders will definitely run. The only question is whether the Democrats will oppose him or not. Could Howard Dean be looking at the race? My gut says no (the DFA will give him a great bully pulpit) but who knows.
Oregon: Oregon has become much more of a typical Pacific Coast liberal state, and conservative Mormon senator Gordon Smith should be able to be knocked off. I would love to see Peter DeFazio run for the seat, which would give progressives another voice in the Senate, but David Wu would make a strong candidate also, and would be the the first Asian-American senator from outside Hawaii.
Virginia: A battle royale between Mark Warner and George Allen is almost assured here. Democrats need to win this one. A growing DC metro area makes that a possibility.
Massachusetts: It's too soon to see how this one will play out, so I will avoid alot of speculation about it. Suffice it to say, if John Kerry is no longer a Massachusetts senator (for whatever reason) Democrats shouldn't have a problem finding a candidate (Barney Frank and Robert Reich come to mind). If Gov. Romney runs, it's a different ballgame. Still, I think Romney goes to bed at night with a nagging voice whispering "First Mormon President" into his ear.
AND NOW, THE MOTHER OF ALL SENATE RACES!
Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum is hated by the left as few others have ever been, but has not yet managed to draw a strong challenger. He is also buoyed by donations from supporters in New York City (where conservatives view him as their proxy senator). Several candidates are possibilities, including Gov. Rendell, State Auditor Bob Casey (if he is succesful in his bid for Treasurer) and even Hardball host Chris Matthews, who has been mentioned before. This will be one to watch.