Yes, it's early (8 months until Election Day). But
Zogby has already begun polling state-by-state for Barron's (owned by the
Wall Street Journal - subscription). The numbers must have the President and Karl Rove running scared.
As we all learned in 2000, the only thing that really counts is the Electoral College. Anachronistic as it might be, it's still the constitutionally mandated way of electing a president of the United States. And talk of repealing it after the 2000 fiasco went nowhere. So, how does the electoral vote look as of today?
According to Zogby, this is where things sit eight months out:
Kerry leads in these states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont - for a total of 226 Democratic electoral votes.
Bush leads in these states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming - for a total of 176 Republican electoral votes.
Toss-up states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin - or 136 electoral votes in play.
If Zogby's estimates are accurate, Kerry would only need to pick up 2 or 3 of the toss-up states to get the 270+ electoral college votes necessary to win the presidency.
Only four of the states listed as "in play" (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington) were Blue states in 2000, when they delivered their electoral votes to Vice-President Al Gore. They have been "trending" Republican over the last couple of years, but with Democrats so united and riled up my sense is those states will stay Democratic this year.
Eight other states that are designated as "in play" this year (including Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Missouri),with 98 electoral votes, were painted Bush red in 2000.
Thus John Kerry begins his campaign with a healthy Electoral College base.
This is an early look at where both parties start the general election campaign. Americans don't vote for another eight months and anything can happen between now and then. But Zogby is arguably the best presidential pollster out there. He was the only one who caught the last minute surge to Al Gore in 2000 (who as we all know went on to win the popular vote). As such, I'm sure Karl Rove and his White House minions are losing sleep over these numbers.