Interesting data abound in the latest
ABC News-Washington Post poll. Bush's overall support was unchanged from February at 50%, equal to the lowest of his presidency. Bear in mind that the day after he was impeached, Clinton was in the high sixties. This is just about an historic low for an incumbent president at this point. 57 percent say they want their next president to steer the country away from the course set by Bush. In a three-way race, the respondents break down Kerry 47, Bush 42, Nader 5, though without a party backing, Nader is unlikely to make the ballot in more than a handful of states, so the two-way numbers of Kerry 53 Bush 42 are probably closer to an accurate snapshot. However, the most interesting numbers lie in the details. The margin of error is +/- 3%.
First, Bush on the issues, from worst to best.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling:
- Health insurance: Approve 32% D 62%
- Federal budget deficit: A 33 D 65
- Social Security: A 38 D 55
- The economy: A 39 D 59
- Prescription drug benefits for the elderly: A 41 D 49
- Creating jobs: A 43 D 54
- Same-sex marriage: A 44 D 52 (!)
- The situation in Iraq: A 46 D 53
- Taxes: A 50 D 47
- Education: A 50 D 45
- Protecting constitutional rights: A 61 D 37
- Terrorism: A 63 D 34
Then, Kerry versus Bush on the issues. On the question of who do you trust overall to deal better with the issues facing the nation, the split was Kerry 49 Bush 44.
- Health insurance: Kerry 56% Bush 36%
- Federal budget deficit: K 53 B 38
- Social Security: K 54 B 38
- The economy: K 53 B 41
- Prescription drug benefits for the elderly: K 50 B 41
- Creating jobs: K 51 B 43
- Same-sex marriage: K 43 B 44
- The situation in Iraq: K 48 B 47
- Taxes: K 51 B 43
- Education: K 52 B 40
- Protecting constitutional rights: K 45 B 45
- Terrorism: K 36 B 57
Kerry loses soundly to Bush on the issue of terrorism, but everywhere else, he is either comfortably ahead or tied. Those numbers look bad for Bush, but you have to weight the relative importance of each issue to voters. Asked to rank the single most important issue in the election, the replies were: the economy and jobs 36% (advantage: Kerry); terrorism 17% (Bush); Iraq 10% (tie); education 8% (K); Social Security 7% (K); prescription drugs and Medicare 7% (K); health care 6% (K); and something else 8%.
Respondents were also asked to rank the various issues as one of the single most important issues, a very important issue, a somewhat important issue, or less important than that. Multiplying the percentages for each category by 4, 3, 2, and 1, respectively to get a relative weight, the resulting order was: constitutional rights 295; economy 290; terrorism 289; creating jobs 287; Iraq 276; health insurance 271; taxes 266; federal budget 266; education 265; prescription drug benefits 260; Social Security 257; and way behind the rest of the pack, same sex marriage at 201.
On the issue that contributed so heavily to sinking his father, whether he "understands the problems of people like you," Bush is getting hammered at Yes 41% and No 57%. Kerry, on the same question, has the reverse: Yes 58% No 34%. On the question of whether he is a strong leader, Kerry scores Yes 61, No 29, Don't Know 10; Bush scores Yes 63, No 36, Don't know 1.
On whether he stands up to special interests, where Bush has tried to define Kerry, Bush scores Yes 51, No 44, DK 5, and Kerry scores Yes 54, No 30, DK 16. On caring more for big corporations or ordinary people, Bush tallies corporations 67, people 26, and Kerry scores corporations 23, people 60. When asked whether each man was honest and trustworthy, the results for Kerry were Yes 59%, No 30%, DK 11, while Bush was Yes 54, No 45, DK 1.
Winning big in the unintentional irony category was the question of whether Bush has done more to unite or divide the country. That resulted in an even split of 48% for unite and 49% for divide, which pretty much indicates that he has divided the country. Finally, the perennial hot button social issues aren't proving to be the third rail they normally are perceived to be. Asked whether they could vote for a nominee whose views on the following issues differed from their own, the percentages answering yes were: abortion 60, same-sex marriage 61, gun control 75, and the death penalty 80.
As everybody warns, it is still very early in the campaign season. However, Kerry is starting from a very strong position and Bush is in unusually bad shape for an incumbent. With the media finally starting to turn on Bush and the internet relentlessly driving fact checking in an unprecedented manner, it will be interesting to see whether the vaunted GOP money advantage can provide the same advantages it has in the past. I'm beginning to doubt that it can. 2004 will be a referendum on Bush, not on his challenger, and so far Bush is losing it badly.
(cross-posted at apostropher.com)