In an attempt to find out where the candidates are today in the electoral vote I used the following formula:
- Take median of Bush vs. Kerry in the last four polls.
- Add Bush's lead or margin that Bush trails vs. each candidate nationally to the partisan index for each state found here: http://www.fairvote.org/map/pres2000.htm#battleground
- Add 8 points to any home state candidate, 4 points to VP candidate (not known for the Dems yet) and 2 points to a Presidential candidate whose state borders the state, to include some small regional effect and a large home state effect.
- Average the combined total of procedures above to the latest state poll for each candidate (if no state polls later than 1/19/04 no state poll used).
- Where the result is a tie, give the state to Bush if the governor is Republican and to the Democrat if the governor is a Democrat.
This method combines national polls, a state's partisan History and state polls to try to arrive at a relatively objective picture of where the candidates stand today.
This weeks results: Kerry leads Bush by 0.5% of the popular vote but trails Bush 279-259 in the electoral vote.
States that are within 4% points based on this formula include IA, OR, MN and PA which are now slightly Kerry and NM, AZ, NV, FL, MO, OH and TN which are now slightly Bush.
Margins by state for every state are in the extended text:
LOCKS FOR KERRY
DC Kerry +76.5
MA Kerry +34.5
RI Kerry +30.5
NY Kerry +26.5
CT Kerry +18.5
HA Kerry +18.5
NJ Kerry +14.5
IL Kerry +13.25
MD Kerry +12.75
CA Kerry +12.75
DE Kerry +12.5
VT Kerry +10.5
LEANING KERRY
NH Kerry +8.75 (a Bush 2000 state)
WA Kerry +8.25
WI Kerry +8.25
MI Kerry +4.75
ME Kerry +4.5
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PA Kerry +2.75
MN Kerry +2.25
OR Kerry +0.5
IA Kerry +0.5
NM Bush +1.5 (a Gore 2000 state)
AZ Bush +1.75
NV Bush +2.25 (note NM, AZ, NV [SW Veep?])
LEANING BUSH
MO Bush +3.5
OH Bush +3.5
TN Bush +3.75
WV Bush +5.5
AR Bush +7.5
VA Bush +7.5
LA Bush +9.5
CO Bush +9.5
LOCKS FOR BUSH
IN Bush +10.75
NC Bush +11.25
GA Bush +11.5
AL Bush +13.5
KS Bush +14.75
SC Bush +15.5
MS Bush +15.5
KY Bush +15.75
SD Bush +16.25
MT Bush +23.5
OK Bush +23.5
ND Bush +27.5
TX Bush +27.5
NE Bush +29.5
AK Bush +31.5
ID Bush +39.5
UT Bush +39.5
WY Bush +43.5