Taking a look at the stories this last week, which are already being diarized at great length, you'll notice a few things. Most notably, Kerry is raising record breaking amounts of dough, but at the same time, Bush's ads, as clumsy and infantile as they may be, are having an effect.
Now, I'm not being chicken little here. Polls this early are largely meaningless in predicting ultimate outcomes, so a Badger State poll doesn't normally cause me to pull out my hair one way or the other. All those caveats on the power of polls apply here, as they do whenever a poll-ish diary gets posted.
But, there is a fundamental truth in electoral media strategy, and it is this: First impressions matter. It's on that I want to speak.
For all the polls and all the numbers rising and falling, a few things are basically consistent, the most important of which is that a significant portion of the electorate are still undecided on Kerry, one way or the other. That number is getting less significant every day, but for now, it's important. Bush's "aware" ratings are at pretty much 100%. Kerry's vary pretty wildly, but the highest I've seen them are 93%, sometimes as low as 75ish, usually somewhere in the middle. And, here's what matters, "aware" ratings only go up. Whether you approve or disapprove, you're either basically aware of a candidate and his positions or you're not. Once they're near 100%, you can't really do anything about them, and have to start playing to an electorate with already solidified opinions.
When you take a look at the poll numbers, don't look at how many vote Kerry/Bush in a matchup. Look at the unaware factors in the favorability ratings, and compare them longitudinally. It doesn't matter so much how Kerry polls against Bush in a head to head matchup. What DOES matter, is how he's being defined.
Looking at poll data since the nomination was clinched, nearly 13% of the "don't knows" moved into a column this month. One thirteenth of them became pro-Kerry. Fully half of them decided he sucks. That is a very, very ominous sign for the Kerry camp; it suggests that even the embryonic, inaccurate, and downright clumsy version of the Bush attack strategy is achieving its desired purpose. Bush's image is pretty crystallized in the minds of voters. Kerry is an unknown quantity for many. If at least half those voters don't go to Kerry, the election is over before it begins. Once a candidate is 100% known, you can play with the approval ratings, the mudslinging, you can shave points here and add them there. But never is there a time to drastically shape poll numbers as when that final "don't know" category becomes a "know" category. Besides a scandal, nowhere is there an opportunity to swing numbers so drastically as by filling in an unknown candidate one way or the other.
People keep saying "well, Kerry still doesn't have the visibility of Bush so there's plenty of room to grow," and that's true. What is also true, however, is that it won't be the case forever, and, from everything I've seen, Kerry's aware numbers are rising in all the key states, and as they are, they are being filled up with "disapproves" at a MUCH higher ratio than "approves".
The basic jist is this. Kerry doesn't have that room to grow for much longer. By June, he'll be a known commodity, and from now until then, if the last few months is any indication, it'll be Bush that's largely making him known to the voters. It comes down to the political axiom: that you lose when you let your opponent define you. Bush is doing exactly that right now, and despite half-assed ad-buys, they haven't been enough to counter it.
The window, my friends, is closing fast.
There are other things that are going to come into play as well that will work in Bush's favor. The economy, as I've said it would many times, is improving, jobs are increasing, and by all accounts will continue to do so more and more rapidly, an under-respected facet is that Karen Hughes, though not technically back on the team until June, is starting to work harder and harder for Bush, and she is just as dangerous as Rove when it comes to advertising strategy (she's the art to his science, the positive to his negative). Expect the media strategies to start having a LOT more impact when she starts getting her say in them.
The point is, if you think it's been an uphill battle, you're wrong. It's been downhill since the primaries started, it's been easy. It will START becoming an uphill battle this summer, when the economy is improving, Kerry is a known commodity, we start ostensibly handing Iraq off, and voters start paying attention (and God forbid a terrorist attack at the Olympics or elsewhere or something like that).
So, here is what I would suggest:
Take that 50 million dollars, and spend it NOW. MATCH Bush's ad buys in battleground states for the next five weeks. Blow it. Blow it all.
I don't say that as a doomsayer or as a gambler. Precisely the opposite. I'm confident that Kerry's record-breaking fundraising will continue. Also, from previous races of his, it's known that Kerry likes to back-load his strategies. Save his money for the final months and weeks when the most people are paying attention. And, it's a good strategy when it has to be one or the other.
But, look at it this way, if Kerry plays it right, if he meets or exceeds his 120 million dollar goal (and he will), he can spend 50 from now until June, coast (at a tune of 20-40 million bucks) from June until September, and then do another blitz from September until election day with everything he has left (50+ at least).
The reason I say this is going back to what I started this diary with. That being, the first impression window, which is critical, is closing, and fast. HE needs to introduce himself to American swing voters, instead of letting Bush do it. HE needs to make it so those people that are unaware of John Kerry break 50/50 at least in terms of approve/disapprove, instead of 10/90, which is what it's looking like now. If it's 47 to 45 in favor of Bush right now, and Kerry's unknowns are 10% (just random numbers, but you get the idea), he can define the unknowns 50/50 and make it a 52-50 race, well within striking range, or he can let it be defined as it has been, nearly 10/90, and make it a 57-46 race. It's a unique opportunity, and one that won't come again. Define yourself positively to the electorate, get your aware numbers up as high as possible, and then you can rest on your haunches for a bit. But those first impressions are critical, and right now, GW Bush is winning that war.
Please, Kerry. Don't just coast right now and expect to blitz at the end. You NEED these first impressions. Don't be afraid to suddenly come out in a big way. You don't have to sustain it for long, you'll be defined, whether by you or by Bush, soon enough. A big rush now, and you'll be able to canter for awhile in the summer, and come on strong at the end. Trying to run at a leisurely pace and then turn it on close to the finish line, you may look up from your feet and see your opponent's back already well out of range.
You don't have to be afraid that by spending too much money you'll fuck yourself by November. If you define yourself in a big way now, the polls will remain close and donations will continue to pour in. The only way the money will start drying up is if Bush starts walking away with it and your base starts becoming frustrated and pessimistic. It's time to be bold, and if you're worried about your funds drying up so you play it safe, you're only ensuring a self-fulfilling prophecy.