I've been reading again and again for months about how fired up we Democrats are, and frequently the proof cited -- as it was today in the KY state senate race -- is massive Democratic turnout in primaries and special elections. We all know now that Democrats are showing up at the ballot box to vote in every single election they possibly can.
But I've heard nothing of the Republicans. Has their turnout dramatically increased as well? Is this an across-the-board surge in interest in the political process, or is it primarily on our side?
Read more, and answer the poll!
I've spent some time searching for decent statistics on this... the numbers that are of particular interest to me are: What's the comparison between the turnout of Republicans in the 1992 primaries (when it was essentially certain that GHWB was the nominee) and the turnout of Republicans in the 2004 primary? How about the turnout of Republicans in all these special elections in the past year in which we've heard about the huge Democratic turnout? There must be some of you out there who are good at mining voting data and have easy access to it, as I don't seem to be getting very far in my attempts.
At any rate: It seems to me that it's quite possible November 2nd is going to depend in no small part on the answer to this question of turnout. If we are living in a country full of fired-up Democrats who can't wait to vote Bush out of office, and full of Republicans who pretty much see Just Another Election coming down the pike, then we just might win this sucker in a landslide. If, however, we're all fired up, red and blue alike, then we'll have a highly contested election that more people than usual really care about.
I'm hoping (and, not to jinx us, but I'm feeling quite optimistic) that we Democrats are facing a Republican voting public -- outside of the radical right-wingers -- who simply doesn't care about Bush's re-election nearly as much as we Democrats -- as a whole -- care about his ouster.