Obviously,
attacking Najaf is a major gamble.
We run the risk of damaging or destroying the Iman Ali shrine, and/or martyring al-Sadr. As best I can understand, if we manage to kill al-Sadr in the Iman Ali shrine....well, the resultant backlash would be terrible.
(Think: How would the religious right react if angry Muslims nailed Bush to a cross? Now add in a lot of AK-47s, and 130,000 US soldiers conviently nearby).
So this leads me to wonder...
Why? Why make this gamble? The odds of failure are
extremely high. We'd have to capture and then discredit al-Sadr and destroy his most loyal men without killing too many civilians or damaging the holy sites in Najaf.
If we managed all that, we might make Iraq a bit more stable. But it's likely we're just going to piss off a lot more people.
So why make this gamble now? I can only think of three reasons.
- Bush is desperate for a stable Iraq. He's got to have something to point to on election day. So he'll risk it all, figuring he's got nothing to lose.
- Bush figures the backlash will force Allawi to demand we leave, and Bush will comply...getting the troops moving home by election day.
- Everyone involved in this operation has been taking a lot of acid, and their view of reality is warped.