Given that the environment in 2006 may well be conducive to big gains for the Dems (the Plame investigation/indictments, Iraq, gas prices, various scandals, etc.), it would seem to me that--on the House side--the best chances for gains would be in places that are generally predisposed to Dems; the seats that should be Democratic but are held by GOPers. Kinda like the surprise losers for us in 1994 were people like Dan Glickman (D-KS) and Neal Smith (D-NE).
To that end, I have ranked the 25 most Democratic house districts currently held by a Republican based on 2000 presidential vote (Almanac of American Politics has not broken down 2004 yet) and the Cook report's rating. I did not take into account the perceived strengths or weaknesses of the current rep. This is purely a measure of the terrain. I'd be willing to bet, however, that if the Dems do take back the House, it will be through winning a bunch of these seats. I'm interested in hearing from local and/or informed people what's going on in these places (yes, I realize a few have been discussed elsewhere).
The list, ranked by most Democratic:
- Connecticut 02 (Simmons)
- Delaware at large (Castle)
- New Jersey 02 (LoBiondo)
- New Jersey 03 (Saxton)
- Connecticut 04 (Shays)--challenged again by Diane Farrel, who held him to 52% last time
- Iowa 02 (Leach)
- Connecticut 05 (Johnson)
- New York 03 (King)
- Iowa 01 (Nussle)--Nussle is retiring
- New York 13 (Fossella)
- New York 25 (Walsh)
- Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick)
- Illinois 10 (Kirk)
- Florida 22 (Shaw)
- New Jersey 04 (Smith)
- Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon)
- Kentucky 03 (Northup)
- Florida 10 (Young)
- New Jersey 07 (Ferguson)
- New Mexico 01 (Wilson)
- New Hampshire 02 (Bass)
- Colorado 07 (Beauprez)--Beauprez is retiring
- Washington 08 (Reichert)
- Nevada 03 (Porter)
- Pennsylvania 15 (Dent)