We've seen two recent polls (ARG and Fox) showing that Kerry's lead over Bush is actually more with Nader included than in a 2 way horserace.
This seems to correspond with something I'm finding in making voter ID calls for the state Democratic party in NV. A small number (about 1 in 10) of registered Ds or self-identified Ds -- will, when offered a choice of "Democrat JK, Republican GWB or Independent RN" respond they are for "the independent." They don't say Nader, and they are for other known Ds on the ticket. In all these cases, in my anecdotal experience, these are not people following the election closely or at all.
So what this makes me wonder how these folks would respond if Nader were not listed as a choice. (HE is on our script since he is on the ballot here in NV).
I wonder whether in fact Nader is providing a resting place right now for disaffected Democrats -- who aren't happy with the state of the country and want a change but who hear only the names of the parties, not the candidates.
And I wonder if this means Kerry, to pick these folks up, needs paradoxically to distance himself from the "Democratic Party" and assert his "independence" (as, for instance, Harry Reid is doing in his campaign literature).
Anyone finding this in their states? Any thoughts about Nader getting support from disaffected conservative democrats?