Nation Review has an 9/27
article predicting a two seat gain in the Senate for the Republicans. The author, John Miller, puts the closest races into "Likely", "Leaning" or "Toss Up" categories. Miller, for the most part, stays with calls he made in July, regardless of what the polls are doing. Miller also cherry-picks his polls in close races, citing Repbulican-friendly polls and ignoring Democrat-friendly ones. When I rate the races with the latest information, I come up with a one seat gain for the Democrats, giving them control of the Senate if Edwards is VP.
Here is how I will call the races: (1) if an incumbent polls 54% or more, or if the leader in a non-incumbent race has at least an 8 point lead, then it is a likely win. (2) If an incumbent is polling 45% or less, it is a likely loss. (3) If an incumbent is polling 51% to 53% or if the leader in a non-incumbent race has a 4 to 7 point lead, then it is a leaning win. (4) If an incumbent is polling 46% to 48%, then it is a leaning loss. (5) If an incumbent is polling 49% to 50% or if the leader is a non-incumbent race has less than a 4 point lead, then it is a "Toss Up". (6) In Louisiana, it is looking like a close December run off, so it is a "Toss Up"
Here is the state of the Senate races, with both my assessment in bold:
Alaska - Toss Up
In a
poll from the last week of August, the Democrat Knowles is ahead 45.6% to 44.5%. Miller rates it the same.
California - Leaning Democratic retention
In a 9/6 to 9/8 poll, the Democrat incumbent Boxer is ahead 53% to 36%. Miller now rates it a "Likely Democratic retention".
Colorado - Toss Up
Apparently there is a new SUSA poll that has the Republican Coors ahead over the Democrat Salazer, 51% to 46%. A Rasmussen poll released 9/20 has Coors ahead 46% to 45%. Prior to these two polls, the race looked good for Salazer. In two recent polls, the Democrat Salazar was ahead of the Republican Coors 46% to 45% and 53% to 42%. In a prior poll, Salazar was ahead, 48% to 42%. Miller also rates it a "Toss Up".
Florida - Toss Up
The last three polls all show the Democrat Castor ahead of the Republican Martinez. A 9/18 to 9/22 Gallup poll has Castor ahead 49% to 43% among registered voters, a 9/18 to 9/21 Quinnipiac poll has Castor ahead 43% to 42%, and a 9/12 to 9/14 SUSA poll, Castor ahead 49% to 45%. Polls out of Florida aren't going to be too accurate because of the Hurricane damage. Additional good news - the Republican's primary challenger McCollum has refused to endorse Martinez after what a supporter has described as "mean-spirited, desperate and personal" attacks by the Martinez campaign. Miller rates it a "Leaning Republican takeover".
Georgia - Likely Republican takeover
In a 8/26 to 8/30 Democratic poll, the Republican Isakson is ahead 46% to 41%. In a Republican poll for essentially the same time period, Isakson is ahead 52% to 38%. Splitting the difference still gives Isakson a big lead. Miller rates it the same.
Illinois - Likely Democratic takeover
All Keyes is providing is laughs
Louisiana - Toss Up
Louisiana is different than the rest of the US, with a all-contestants primary on Nov 2nd and a run off on Dec 4th. A 9/20 to 9/23 internal poll has the Republican Vitter ahead with 44%, the Democrat John with 24%, the Democrat Kennedy with 18% and the Democrat Morrell with 5%. A "recent" Market Research poll has the Vitter with 42%, Kennedy with 19%, John with 16% and Morrell with 3%. Louisiana is lean Bush, but elected a Democratic Senator in 2002. Miller rates it the same.
Missouri - Likely Republican retention
A poll released 9/19 has the Republican incumbent Bond is ahead of the Democrat Farmer 53% to 38%. In a 9/7 to 9/9 poll, the Bond is ahead of Farmer 57% to 37%. Miller rates it the same.
North Carolina - Likely Democratic retention
A poll released 9/27 has the Democrat Bowles ahead of the Republican Burr, 49% to 40%. In a 9/6 to 9/8 poll, the Bowles is ahead 50% to 40. Miller rates it a "Toss Up".
Oklahoma - Toss Up
A 9/17 to 9/19 poll has the Democrat Carson ahead of the Republican Coburn, 41% to 40%. Carson also had a 39-37 lead in a 9/10-9/12 poll. Coburn has made many inflammatory statements, earning him negative editorials from many Oklahoman newspapers. Miller rates it a "Leaning Republican retention".
Pennsylvania - Leaning Republican retention
In a 9/21 to 9/22 poll, the Republican incumbent Specter is ahead 52% to 30%. Miller rates it a "Likely Republican Retention". However, the wildcard in this race is that there is also a popular, conservative third-party candidate on the ballot.
South Carolina - Toss Up
In a 9/7-9/9 poll, the Republican DeMint had a 44-41 lead over the Democrat Tenebaum. Tennebaum held a huge financial advantage of DeMint, having had $2M as of June 30th compared with $100K for DeMint. SC is a heavily leaning Bush. Miller rates it a "Leaning Republican takeover".
South Dakota - Leaning Democratic retention
In a 9/20 to 9/22 poll, the Democratic incumbent Daschle holds a 50% to 45% lead over the Republican Thune. Given that Thune was South Dakota's lone Representative, the usual break for the challenger may not hold here. Miller rates it the same.
Washington - Likely Democratic retention
In a 9/17 to 9/19 poll, the Democratic incumbent Murray holds a 57% to 37% lead over the Republican Nethercutt. Miller rates it the same.
Wisconsin - Leaning Democratic retention
A 9/16 to 9/19 ABC News poll has the Democratic incumbent Feingold ahead of his Republican challenger Michels, 50% to 45%. Michels is probably enjoying a post-primary bounce and will fade back shortly. Still, there is reason for concern. Miller rates this a "Likely Democratic retention".
So, Miller has a likely Republican takeover in Georgia, leaning Republican takeovers in Florida and South Carolina, no leaning Democratic takeovers, a likely Democratic takeover in Illinois and four toss ups (Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana and North Carolina). Miller assumes that the toss ups will go two to the Democrats and two to the Republicans. Therefore, Miller is predicting a two seat gain in the Senate for the Republicans.
I have a likely Republican takeover in Georgia, a likely Democratic takeover in Illinois and five toss ups (Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina). My guess is that Coburn has lost it in Oklahoma and the Democrats will split the four toss ups, giving them a one seat gain in the Senate. However, control of the Senate could easily come down to the results of the December Louisiana run-off.