Usually any kind of desaster helps the incumbent, but in this case it could hurt Bush.
When "Charley" hit Florida most people probably thought "Oh well sometimes there are hurricanes!" , when "Frances" hit they probably thought "Why us again?", but what will they think after "Ivan" hit Florida ?
One of the things most scientist predict as a consequence of global warming is a rise in storms of every kind and this is an administration that denies the existence of human made global warming. You can make a compelling case to every Floridian that this administration will help him to rebuilt his home , but that they won't protect him from having to move into another state in 20 years, when this kind of hurricane season becomes the only kind.
Usually it's very hard to use any kind of ecological argument in an election, but this could be one of the few moments it could help win an election.
Use hurricanes against Bush ( maybe we should start a group with that name ;) ).