This Saturday, in Louisville, KY, where a couple of weekends ago, religious conservatives, and Bill Frist Headroom, gathered to spread their messages of hate and intolerance, around 150,000 people of all races, faiths, sexual orientations, shoe sizes, and opinions on how to handicap a horse race will gather at Churchill Downs for one of America's most celebrated events, the so-called "most exciting two minutes in sports," the Kentucky Derby. There will gather some of the most royally bred equines and humans in the country - as well as some who are distinctly not so.
This is the one time of the year that the sport, suffering from bad publicity and increased competition from increased legal gambling, captures the attention of people and the press alike. The New York Times has had two front page stories on the race this week, which is two more than the number of stories they, or most anyone else in the mainstream media, has run on the revelations that a British official was told by Bush Administration officials in July, 2002 that "intelligence and facts are being fixed around the policy," that policy being the unprovoked invasion of Iraq.
The bad press for racing is over some indictments and positive tests regarding illegal medication administered to horses, and there will be armed guards present in the barn area to prevent any hanky-panky. Of course, Kentuckians re-elected Jim Bunning despite the fact that he cheated in a debate against Democrat opponent Daniel Mongiado by reading from a teleprompter, but cheating in the Derby? Egads!
To help you enjoy the race, which will be televised by NBC starting at 5 PM in the east despite complaints by the American Family Council, who object to the way men hug each other in the winners' circle after their horses win, as well as the fact that two of the horses have the word "High" in their name, the following is a preview of the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby.
A full field of 20 3 year old colts and geldings will try and get the distance of 1 1/4 miles, which none of them have ever attempted before. Handicapping the race is a challenge of predicting the unknown - no matter how well horses run up to 1 1/8 miles, the ability to get the extra 1/8 mile (a furlong) is what aficionados consider the difference between the classic winner and a nice horse. We use the horses' pedigrees and the way they finished in their Derby preps to try and project who will stay, and who will falter under the track's signature twin spires, but it's really only guesswork. Perhaps that why only two favorites have won the race since 1979, including last year's Cinderella story, Smarty Jones.
BELLAMY ROAD will likely be the betting favorite for the Derby. He is one of five entrants trained by Brooklyn-born Nick Zito - he has 25% of the field! He comes into the race off of 2 absolutely devastating wins of 15 and 17 lengths, the latter in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in NYC, where he cruised home with the same ease that John Bolton lied under oath to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to tie a 32 year old track record, earning a phenomenal speed rating of 120 (speed figures calculate how fast a horse ran taking the track conditions into account);this despite the fact that his jockey stood up in the saddle in the stretch to pump his fist at the stunned crowd. After the finish, he continued to gallop strongly, and the rider needed assistance to pull him up. Later that night, he was seen still running, this time down Broadway trying to catch the opening curtain of the musical Sweet Charity. He's owned by Yankees' owner George Steinbrenner who, given his record of firing managers and mistreating employees, could be in line for UN Ambassador once Bolton is rejected. (Though considering that he was once convicted of a felony for making illegal campaign contributions to Richard Nixon, perhaps he'll be considered for House Majority Leader.)
AFLEET ALEX is this year's"feel-good" story. In fact, there's enough feel-good here for an entire series of films, perhaps even his own cable network. He already has his own website! There's the little girl named Alex with a rare fatal disease who raised money for research into her ailment from a lemonade stand, raising over $1 million from all over the country before she died at age 8; the group of regular-guy owners from Philadelphia who've adopted her cause as their own; they'd pooled money to buy their first racehorse for $75,000 and he's now the second choice in the world's most famous race, which is truly amazing - you're doing well with your first horse bought out of a sale if you just make it to the racetrack!; the hard-working trainer who has toiled in near anonymity for years at little Delaware Park; the ex-wrestler riding his first Derby horse, and the breeder, a cancer victim, who credits his far outliving the doctors' prognoses to his excitement over the horse who he no longer even has any financial interest in.
And then there's Afleet Alex himself, whose Derby aspirations seemed to be doomed when he ran last in the Rebel stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. But he was diagnosed with a lung infection, and he bounced back with a huge win with an explosive move in the Arkansas Derby with a108 speed figure and lightning closing fractions. He was one of the top 2 year olds last year, and if it wasn't for the lung infection, would come into the race with nearly flawless credentials. He's looked awesome in his morning workouts this week at Churchill. Look for him to sit around mid-pack and come with his usual strong closing kick through the stretch; but whether it will be enough, and there's concern about his inexperienced jockey timing his move correctly, remains to be seen
BANDINI will likely be the third betting choice. He's a late starter, having had only one race at 2 last year. Every year there's one horse everyone talks about even before he's made his mark, and this is the one for 2005, based on his good looks, stellar pedigree (his sire is 2000 Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus), and his crafty PR sense. He's had four races this year, has improved with every subsequent start, and dominated his last prep, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington, earning a 103 speed figure. Those who feel he can challenge Bellamy Road are counting on further improvement and a setback for the favorite. But his time in the Blue Grass and, particularly, his closing fractions were slow, and only one Blue Grass winner in 25 years as won the Derby. Nonetheless, he's also looked great in training this week, he hails from the barn of super-trainer Todd Pletcher and merits much respect.
HIGH LIMIT was a mystery horse coming into the year, with two dominating, facile wire-to-wire wins last year against meager competition at Delaware Park. But when he similarly dominated the Louisiana Derby, earning a 105 speed figure, he jumped to the top of many Derby lists. In the Blue Grass, however, he faced the speedy Spanish Chestnut and had to settle for a early spot behind the leader; it was the first time he had to look at a horse's ass during a race, similar to what John Edwards experienced in the vice-presidential debate last fall. He finished an OK second far behind Bandini, but his mystique was shattered, and he'll have to come back with a much stronger effort in a race in which he once again will likely not be able to gain an early advantage. His trainer, Bobby Frankel, is the only person associated with the sport that I ever heard speak out against the war; he coincendentally, last year, had a horse named Peace Rules.
HIGH FLY is another of Nick Zito's entrants. A month ago, he won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park with a 102 speed figure for his second straight stakes victory, and his 5th win in 6 lifetime starts. At that point, it seemed he could be the Derby favorite, but that was before the romps registered by the top three above. So he's gone from favorite to 4th or 5th choice almost as fast as Howard Dean did during the primaries. This horse is one bad luck trip away from being undefeated, but his speed figures are slower than the top contenders, he's benefited from ideal set-ups in his last two wins, and he hasn't raced in 5 weeks. By spacing his last race so long before the Derby, Zito is bucking a trend in which no horse has won the Derby with more than 4 weeks off since Needles in 1956.
SUN KING is yet another Zito entry. All five of his horses have different owners, so he's getting paid by 5 guys who are all trying to beat one another; perhaps Zito should consider hiring Jack Abramoff to bring his special way of dealing with such conflicting interests. At one time, Sun King was considered Zito's top dog, and one of the race favorites. Sun King faltered badly, however, in the Blue Grass - he was never involved as his rider had him far too wide around the turns; his stock has fallen off perhaps more than any other horse in the race. Some feel that the Keeneland surface over which the Blue Grass is run is a quirky one that not every horse can handle, and that Sun King can therefore rebound in the Derby.
Might as well discuss Zito's other two - NOBLE CAUSEWAY is owned by Barnes and Noble chairman Leonard Riggio and is said to be an avid reader of 18th century romance novels. He just won his first race in February in his 4th try, and followed that with an extremely impressive win, closing in a fashion that got Zito pumped up - he was reported to have yelled "Now THAT's a Derby horse" as he stormed to the win. His last race was a close though non-threatening second to High Fly in the Florida Derby, earning a speed figure of 100. He's been catching on as a possible long shot play, based on what is considered his potential to improve and his forward training up to the Derby. However, he also faces a 5 week layoff. ANDROMEDA'S HERO is the lowest-regarded of the Zito 5, and is 50-1 in the morning line. He has a nice late kick but unfortunately, it seems to come not only too late, but after the race itself; you always see him zipping by the rest of the field after the finish, which does as much good as the fact that Bush's approval ratings are in the toilet after the election, great.
If Andromeda's Hero or anyone else not yet mentioned wins, it would be as big a surprise as the president showing any signs of keeping his post-election promise to "reach out." The only reaching he's done has been to pleasure himself as Laura does her late-night comedy routines. The California horses aren't getting respect because their races have been slow, and those who have ventured to race in other states have fared about as well as Arnold Schwarzenegger would. WILKO won last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile, the climactic race of the 2 year old season. No horse that has won that race, now in its 25th year, has ever won the Derby. It's a jinx that's rooted in logic, the reasoning being that training up to and winning the Juvenile takes too much out of the horse. Indeed, Wilko has battled foot problems this year which has disrupted his training, he's had only 2 preps, and has yet to equal even his modest top 98 speed figure from last year. He also had no excuse finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby.
BUZZARDS BAY won that race with a 98 figure. His trainer had his horses quarantined in a detention barn after some tested positive for an illegal concoction called a milkshake, and was quoted, possibly out of context, by an LA columnist saying that people who bet on horse races were "idiots." The bad karma caused him to draw the outside #20 post position. But the horse is a real fighter who's shown real improvement, and could perhaps run in the money at a big price if he improves again. GOING WILD was beaten by 41 lengths by Bellamy Road in the Wood. GIACOMO hasn't won a race since last October. DON'T GET MAD ran poorly in the SA Derby, then won the shorter, one mile Derby Trial at Chuchill just last Saturday; he's 3 for 3 at Churchill, but has failed to sustain his rallies at longer distances.
GREELEY'S GALAXY never ran as a 2 year old; no such horse has won the Derby since 1882. The aforementioned SPANISH CHESTNUT is entered as a rabbit; his owners also own Bandini, and his presence ensures that Bellamy Road won't get away with setting a slow pace. He's faded badly in his last two at shorter distances and has no shot to be anywhere close by the end. Using a rabbit is an old and controversial practice that can be harmful to the horse and has, in my opinion, no place in the Kentucky Derby. Hopefully, Bellamy Road will dispose of him with the same disdain the administration shows anyone who disagrees with them. COIN SILVER won his last race in the slop; he's bred to love wet tracks but it looks like he won't enjoy that advantage Saturday. FLOWER ALLEY was far behind Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby. GREATER GOOD showed a consistent closing kick prior to failing in the Arkansas Derby, but even his wins were all pretty slow, and he hasn't trained that great this week.
There are a lot of horses to throw out...the field is not deep with quality, and it would be a huge upset if anyone other than the top three and just a handful of others ended up in the winners' circle.
PICKS
Can Bellamy Road be beaten? There is a case against him. He's only had two prep races this year, and historically, Derby winners have at least 3; in fact 55 out of the last 56 entrants with only 2 or less going back to 1949 have failed. Some feel he will "bounce," or regress, off of his phenomenal Wood. Others point to the fact that whereas he's been able to gain an easy early lead and run around the track unchallenged, he will certainly be tested early in the Derby, and may have to change tactics and sit behind the rabbit Spanish Chestnut. In fact, in his only loss, last October, he was challenged on the lead, and faded to finish 7th, 12 lengths back - it is said that he hurt himself in the race, but whatever the reason for it, that now seems long ago. While these are all valid concerns, his overwhelming performances make him look like a possible "freak" - a horse with modest breeding who far outruns his pedigree, as well as anyone racing against him. His sire, Concerto, stands at stud for just $5000 a pop - top sire Storm Cat commands $500,000. Bellamy Road is a big, strapping colt with huge, powerful strides, and in the Wood, he looked a bit like a "tremendous machine," the term used by the track announcer during the 1973 Belmont to describe Secretariat as he was winning the race, and the Triple Crown, by 31 lengths. Bellamy Road is my pick to win the 131st Kentucky Derby.
Afleet Alex has never run a bad race when healthy. He seems to have progressed from his already successful 2 year old form and looks poised to run a big race.
Noble Causeway is improving and has a good closing running style which could help him get a piece of the purse.
Buzzards Bay is as game as they come and seems to be on the improve.
Enjoy the race.