Here is the first installment of the trilogy, covering the first 11 Senate races: from Arizona to Michigan.
Here is the second installment of the trilogy, covering the second batch: Minnesota to Ohio.
From OurSenate, below the jump, is the rundown.
Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994
Santorum is the only incumbent so far trailing his announced opponent. Democrats have their man in State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. Casey has led Santorum in every independent poll, by anywhere from 7 points to double digits. Santorum can't even hit 40% against Casey. Don't count out the incumbent yet, however: the White House's biggest priority in 2006 will be to save him. He also has a financial advantage and may be a much fiercer campaigner than Casey. So Casey needs to avoid getting complacent and assuming it's his.
Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999
Polls show Chafee is still the second most endangered incumbent of 2006. The latest poll shows him beating U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse (D) by only a 41-36 margin, and beating the much lesser-known Secretary of State Matt Brown (D) by a 44-29 margin. For an incumbent with a well-known Rhode Island name to be in the low 40's is very interesting. Chafee is also not a fighter and will probably run a weak campaign (his fundraising has been lackluster, to say the least). Plus, he might not even survive his own party's primary! Definitely a race worth watching.
Tennessee (OPEN) - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Bill Frist (R) - elected in 1994
Frist is keeping his term limit pledge and retiring to set up a 2008 presidential run. Like Maryland, this is a case where the "out" party has a stronger candidate, but is running in an unfriendly state. Democrats have a strong pick in Rep. Harold Ford Jr., while Republicans face a divisive and overwhelming primary between Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, former Rep. Van Hilleary, former Rep. Ed Bryant, and State Rep. Beth Harwell. Corker is the best GOP candidate, but is pro-choice and faces a tough hurdle convincing conservative primary voters to choose him. Like Michael Steele, Ford is a potentially strong candidate (though he has family baggage), but faces a state increasingly hostile to his party.
Texas - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - elected in 1993 special election
Against her own wishes, Hutchison will run for reelection. She wanted to be governor, but was encouraged to stay out by Senate Republicans. She is also breaking a 1994 term limit pledge.
Utah - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R) - elected in 1976
There is only one incumbent safer than Ted Kennedy, and it is Orrin Hatch.
Vermont (OPEN) - Solid Independent
Incumbent: Jim Jeffords (I) - elected in 1988
Jeffords is stepping down for health reasons, and Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) is heavily favored to replace him. Sanders is very progressive and promises to caucus with Senate Democrats if elected. He is very popular in Vermont and will be tough to beat for Republicans.
Virginia - Solid Republican
Incumbent: George Allen (R) - elected in 2000
Gov. Warner (D) is probably not running. Allen is popular. Virginia leans Republican. Yawn.
Washington - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D) - elected in 2000
With the almost-Governor Dino Rossi (R) not running, Cantwell can expect weak, conservative opposition. She's in for another term, I think.
West Virginia - Lean Democratic if Capito runs, Solid Democratic if Capito doesn't run
Incumbent: Robert Byrd (D) - elected in 1958
Byrd will be just shy of 89 on Election Day, but he wants to run again. Despite West Virginia's Republican trends, he has been a Mountain State staple since 1959. Only Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) could give him a race, and some are spreading rumors that she is losing interest. If Capito runs, it'll be close. Otherwise, Byrd's in by a landslide.
Wisconsin - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Herb Kohl (D) - elected in 1988
Kohl can expect an under-funded sacrificial lamb.
Wyoming - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Craig Thomas (R) - elected in 1994
Yawn.
So the ratings are as follows:
SOLID INDEPENDENT: Vermont
SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (without Hoeven), West Virginia (without Capito), Wisconsin
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC: Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, Washington
LEAN DEMOCRATIC: Florida, Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia (with Capito)
TOSS-UP: Minnesota, North Dakota (with Hoeven), Rhode Island
LEAN REPUBLICAN: Missouri (with McCaskill), Montana, Tennessee
LIKELY REPUBLICAN: Arizona, Indiana (with Roemer), Missouri (without McCaskill), Ohio
SOLID REPUBLICAN: Indiana (without Roemer), Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming