You may have noticed news reports about upcomming collision of 2 large icebergs in Antarctic, this weekend probably. More exactly, the huge B-15A iceberg (the largest remnant of the Ross Ice Shield that broke away in March 2000) is on the impact course with the floating Drygalski Ice Tongue.
The main news source is NASA, which also provides the "first seat" sattelite images. There are some funny things with the original NASA report.
First (but not foremost), the story style fits more some Hollywood scenario than humble scientific observation report. The title is "
Get Ready for the Largest Demolition Derby on the Planet", which sounds more like a headline from desperately sensationalist news magazine or TV show. This impression is not a huge deal, but it is unusual to get it from NASA. Do they need to cry so loud for attention? Why only know, the last days before the event?
The most amazing passage is here:
The B-15A iceberg is a 3,000-square-kilometer (1,200-square-mile) behemoth that has a history of causing problems. It is the largest fragment of a much larger iceberg that broke away from the Ross Ice Shelf in March 2000. Scientists believe that the enormous piece of ice broke away as part of a long-term natural cycle (every 50-to-100 years, or so) in which the shelf, which is roughly the size of Texas, sheds pieces much as human fingernails grow and break off.
That confuses me as a scientific type very much. Back in 2000, the break up of the Ross Ice Shield was an example of a spectacular consequence of global warming. Now there is
no mentioning of global warming in the NASA story. Should we guess why?
The Antarctic "fingernails" theory exists, but it accounts for relatively small icebergs, and not so many. The B-15A iceberg is too extreme for this theory. And it is hard to imagine that the massive Ross "fingernail" will grow up again on the scale of 50-100 years.
It is scientifically amazing that NASA can completely ignore increased temperatures and longer summers in Antartic, or clearly increasing number of collapsing ice shields. Employment of fingernails analogy is just laughable here. But from political perspective, this report is perhaps not amazing at all.
Just notice the anonymous and general reference "Scientists believe that the enormous piece of ice broke away..." If there is no published scientific paper where the B-15A iceberg is explicitly regarded as a "fingernail", this statement is an outright lie.
This report may be a sign of hidden politics to change the public perception of science. Not only facts and theories are distorted or discarded, the language seems to be very simple and suggestive:
"It's a clash of the titans, a radical and uncommon event" - Yeah, baby!...
...a long-term natural cycle... - It's just natural, no fault of us!
Ironically, a collision between the iceberg and the ice tongue could make things easier for both penguins and ships. - We'll have happy ending, don't worry!
If the collision occurs as predicted, this could be an event that we witness again and again. - It's natural, you see!
If this is the pseudo-scientific (or even anti-scientific) pressure of the current administration, it's very sad. At the very least, whom we can trust about upcoming natural catastrophes?
And regarding specifically NASA, how politically independent it really is?