I'd like to consolidate here the reasons for and the reasons against believing a military draft is imminent, because over months and months I've seen a picture emerging. It's below the fold and comments are welcome.
Evidence For:
The increasing amount of strain placed on the volunteer military in Iraq and other places.
The decrease in volunteering for the military and the guard as a result of what we're seeing in Iraq.
The rapid fall in re-enlistment, specifically in the NG.
The SSS' instruction to fill vacant draft board seats, ostensibly because of "housekeeping"
The SSS' director of alternative service programs just HAPPENING to stop by the Church of the Bretheren, a pacifist denomination, to request that they "dust off" their alternative service programs.
Iraq continues to suck.
Evidence Against:
Repeated denials and assurances from the government that it won't happen.
Why, you ask, would I put up such a one-sided comparison? Well, the neo-con star has fallen. No more do you hear stories of the State Department and the DOD speaking roughly to Syria, Iran, and other rogue regimes. The essential things we can glean from the evidence presented are these: The military is unquestionably preparing for a draft, and the government and military really, REALLY don't want to have one happen. I don't say this because I think Bush or the GOP leadership care a fig about the lives of US soldiers or the people who get caught in the crossfire. I say it because it would be political disaster. After repeated explicit denials, instituting the draft would destroy the base the GOP has among young White males and their parents, especially their mothers. That is the one reason I remain unconvinced that a draft is imminent. Planned, yes, but imminent, not necessarily. I think the GOP still wants that oil, those permanent basing rights, and most importantly the political success of pacifying and controlling Iraq. I think that they DESPERATELY hope that they can do it without a draft, because they know it would be terrible politically. Who knows. Leave comments. And take the poll.
I personally think a draft is likely but not certain within the next year. I think the failure of the US government's Iraq mission and the destruction of the reserve will force it upon us.