I have been putting together a series of profiles of U.S. House of Representatives races to focus on in 2006. We currently hold 202 seats plus one independent who is a DIABN--a Dem in all but name--Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The GOP has 232 seats. Therefore, a net gain of 15 seats gives the Dems control, 218-217 (it won't depend on Sanders because he is running for the Senate and will almost certainly be replaced by a Dem or GOPer). I started the series by profiling 74 seats held by GOPers that because of demographics and/or issues with the incumbents could be vulnerable to takeover. I finished that series with a (mostly) objective ranking of these seats by vulnerability. That analysis (plus links to the individual district profiles) can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/23/173131/345
I then used the same criteria to generate a list of 42 seats which we hold that could be vulnerable to a GOP takeover under the right (or wrong) circumstances. I similarly ranked those seats by vulnerability. That diary can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/26/15543/5440.
I began profiling the 42 races on the "to defend" list on September 30. That diary is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/30/1684/29053.
The second installment was competed on October 11 (it's been a busy couple of weeks). It can be found here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/10/11/161018/23.
Since I began the series, Sherrod Brown (OH-13) announced that he's running for the Senate, leaving open his Akron-based seat. That seat falls in the "possibly competitive" category and ranks between #14 and #15 on the list. Remember, most of these races won't ultimately even be competitive. But, to the extent any of our seats are in danger, they are on this list. (Caveat: obviously, not-yet-announced retirements can potentially add vulnerable seats). In these profiles, I will include where the race falls on the ranking and my own forecast of likely competitive, possibly competitive, or unlikely competitive.
My methodology for inclusion and also for determination of district partisan makeup is explained in the previous diaries.
This installment will feature our potentially vulnerable seats in Tennessee, Kentucky, and the Midwest (excluding the four great plains states). The seats:
Tennessee 04 (Lincoln Davis) (#14-possibly competitive)
The 4th Congressional District of Tennessee runs along the Cumberland Plateau, the westernmost upswelling of the Appalachians, west of the valley where the Tennessee River runs south from Knoxville to Chattanooga. and crosses the state for some 200 miles. It reaches almost to Virginia in the northeast and almost to Mississippi in the southwest and ranks as the fourth most rural district in the nation. Al Gore took 49% in this district in 2000, but Kerry got only 41% in 2004. The overall partisan makeup is 46.3% Dem. Nonetheless, this district was configured by the Democratic state legislature for the Dems; Van Hilleary, the 2002 GOP candidate for governor held this seat under the old lines, but the Dem plan took six Democratic-leaning counties out of Republican Zach Wamp's 3d District and placed them in the 4th District. That enabled Democratic state Senator Lincoln Davis to win the 4th: He led by only 2,000 votes in the counties formerly in the district, but by nearly 8,000 in the counties added, and would surely have trailed in the Republican East Tennessee counties that were subtracted. Since his 53-47 win in '02, he won a rematch more comfortably, 56-44. There is no word as yet who Davis' opponent in 2006 may be. Like with Mike Michaud (ME-02) and Tim Bishop (NY-01), the GOP boat may have sailed, but this is a conservative district, so Davis may still face a decent challenge.
Kentucky 06 (Ben Chandler) (#13-possibly competitive)
The 6th Congressional District of Kentucky includes Lexington and the surrounding counties--a natural unit, unlike some other Kentucky districts. Lexington casts 40% of the votes. For 150 years, this area was mostly Democratic. In the 1990s the area became more Republican, and George W. Bush carried the district in 2000 (57-43) and 2004 (60-40). Today, it is only 42.8% Dem--still making it the second most Democratic district in Kentucky (behind the Louisville-based 3d district). The Congressman is Ben Chandler the former state AG and unsuccessful Dem nominee for governor in 2003. He lost that race to former 6th District Congressman and future jailbird Ernie Fletcher. He then ran in an early 2004 special election for Fletcher's House seat (which had been held by Dem Scotty Baesler until Fletcher won in 1998) and won 56-44. In November 2004, Chandler increased his margin to 60-40. He appears to be in fairly good shape, but this is a fairly GOP district.
Ohio 06 (open seat) (#5-very likely competitive)
The 6th Congressional District of Ohio is made up of a string of counties running 325 miles along the Ohio River plus part of the Mahoning Valley, named after a narrow tributary of the Ohio. In the north it includes the Youngstown suburbs of Boardman, Canfield and part of Poland in Mahoning County, and East Liverpool and Steubenville on the Ohio. It curves along the lightly populated stretch of the river south from Marietta, the old industrial town of Ironton and it extends to the city limits of Portsmouth, not quite in the Cincinnati metropolitan area, where the Scioto River empties into the Ohio. Much of this area is part of poverty-ridden Appalachia. Historically, the northern part of the district was Republican and the southern part Democratic, but that was a long time ago. The steel and coal areas in the north became Democratic during the 1930s and the southern counties started trending Republican in the 1960s. This district was designed by incumbent-protection-minded redistricters to reelect a Democratic congressman, but the cultural conservatism of this region, much like that of West Virginia and eastern Kentucky across the river, put it narrowly in George W. Bush's column, by 49%-47% in 2000 and 51%-49% in 2004. Overall, it is nearly evenly divided at 49.8% Dem. The incumbent, Ted Strickland, is running for governor, presenting the GOP with one of their best (and few) pickup opportunities this cycle. The Dems have a strong candidate in state Sen. Charlie Wilson, while the GOP field is not set. One caveat applicable to all Ohio races: should the RON redistricting ballot initiative pass, the districts and races are all up in the air.
Ohio 13 (open seat) (possibly competitive)
The 13th Congressional District of Ohio is made up of much of metro Cleveland, but none of the city itself. It includes the west side of Akron and its western suburbs; the lines separating it from the 14th and 17th Districts in Akron's Summit County are absurdly convoluted. It includes the northern and eastern parts of Lorain County, including Lorain and Elyria just to the south; the southern tier of suburban townships in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County--Strongsville, North Royalton, Broadview Heights; and the northern tier of suburban townships in Medina County, including Brunswick. Fifty years ago this would have been a Republican area, with Democratic precincts in Akron and Lorain. Today, as Clevelanders have spread far and wide, the area is Democratic, though not overwhelmingly so: George W. Bush twice got 44% of the vote here. Overall, the district is 56% Dem. With Brown's recent announcement that he will seek the Senate race, this seat becomes open. It is far too early to know who the candidates will be, but the Dem will be favored.
Indiana 07 (Julia Carson) (#33-not likely to be competitive)
Indiana's 7th Congressional District includes most of Indianapolis and Marion County. It includes all of Center Township, a Democratic stronghold with a large black population and gentrified middle class, but does not include all of the affluent, Republican northern edge of the county. It extends west to include Speedway and southward and east to modest neighborhoods. Mexicans, whose population nearly tripled in size during the 1990s, are the newest immigrant group. Within these boundaries, the 7th District leans Democratic, and it gave Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry solid margins. Overall, it is 58.3% Dem. This is not a district we should have to worry about, but Carson has always underwhelmed at the polls since she was first elected in 1996. She's a lackluster campaigner, and has had some health problems. She won 55-45 in both 2002 and '04. Still, its hard to see how the GOP mounts a credible challenge in a Dem year.
Illinois 08 (Melissa Bean) (#6-very likely to be competitive)
The 8th Congressional District of Illinois is made up of Schaumburg and dozens of similar communities to the north, on the hilly lakelands north and northwest of Chicago. Just to the north are Palatine and country-manor Barrington Hills (in-between Inverness is connected by a narrow corridor to the 10th District). The district includes the rapidly-growing western half of Lake County, with little lake communities being surrounded by new suburbs like Deer Park and Volo, and also includes the Lake Michigan town of Zion at the Wisconsin border. To the west, the 8th includes about half of fast-growing McHenry County. This district is very affluent. Culturally, this is part of the rural Midwest more than it is of Chicago, though it lacks much regional identity other than the "northwest suburbs." Historically, this area was one of the most Republican places in the nation. In the past decade, like other suburban Chicago areas, it moved toward the Democrats, and if the 8th is still one of Illinois's most Republican districts, as measured by its support of George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, it is far less Republican than districts with similar demographics in Texas or Georgia. Overall, it is 44.5% Dem. The congresswoman is Melissa Bean, who won the seat in 2004, ousting longtime GOPer Phil Crane on her second try, 52-48. While some of Bean's votes have drawn ire around these parts (more so than other Dems in a similar position), she holds a seat we probably should not have. She will face a dogfight in 2006.
Illinois 17 (Lane Evans) (#40-unlikely to be competitive)
The 17th Congressional District of Illinois includes the state's portion of the Quad Cities plus several rural counties to the south: All of the Mississippi River border with Iowa and south almost to St. Louis. But that is not the entire district, for redistricting in 2001 changed its shape considerably. Removed were counties north and directly east of Rock Island and Moline. Added was a thin strip of land along the Mississippi River and the lower Illinois River. Connected to that was an extension that includes rural Macoupin County and a tentacle heading east, plus a very thin strip of land that includes central Springfield (but not the state Capitol building) and, some miles further east, a portion of Decatur. It would be fairly easy to drive directly from any part of the 17th District to another, but only if you crossed over into the 18th or 19th Districts. To drive from one end of the 17th to the other while remaining entirely inside the district would take many more miles and many, many more hours than to drive from Chicago to the southern tip of Illinois in Cairo. There is, of course, a good political explanation for this weird configuration. Illinois's redistricting was a largely bipartisan, incumbent-protection project, negotiated by Speaker Dennis Hastert and 3d District Democrat William Lipinski. For many years Republicans hoped that the Republican counties outlying Rock Island and Moline in the 17th District would outvote those Democratic towns and oust local Democratic Congressman Lane Evans, who was first elected in something of a fluke in 1982 and then was helped by the Democratic trend in the Farm Belt in the 1980s; he later survived several serious challenges. So the current 17th was drawn to help Evans, as well as surrounding GOPers Tim Johnson (15th), Ray LaHood (18th), and John Shimkus (20th): the Republican counties east and north of the Quad Cities were removed; the Mississippi River corridor casts few votes; Macoupin County is historically Democratic; central Springfield and Decatur are solidly Democratic. The old 17th district gave George W. Bush a 6% margin in 2000; the new 17th gave Al Gore a 10% margin. Overall, the current district is 54.5% Dem. This seat barely made the list because Evans still has not broken 65%; he took 62% and 61% in '02 and '04, respectively. Still, it's hard to imagine the GOP threatening Evans unless health problems (he suffers from Parkinson's disease) force him to retire.
Wisconsin 03 (Ron Kind) (#39-unlikely to be competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Wisconsin follows the Mississippi and St. Croix River counties from the southern border of the state to St. Croix County, just east of St. Paul, and extends east two or three counties. Recently, it has been closely divided between Democrats and Republicans. Western Wisconsin was the one segment of rural America where Al Gore and John Kerry ran even with historic Democratic percentages, which was vital to the narrow victory that each won in this state; Gore carried the district 49%-46% and Kerry 51%-48%. It produced solid margins for other Democrats, Governor Jim Doyle in 2002 and Senator Russ Feingold in 2004. Overall, the district is 52.8% Dem. The incumbent, Ron Kind, picked up the seat from moderate GOPer Steve Gunderson when the latter retired in 1996. He won easily since then until 2004, when he beat back a strong challenge from GOP State Sen. Dale Schultz. Kind won 56-44. Because of the split nature of the district and because of Schultz's showing, the seat made my list, but I don't expect a tough race for Kind.
Iowa 03 (Leonard Boswell)
The 3d Congressional District covers 12 counties in central Iowa, including Des Moines's Polk County and extends mostly to the east. It is the only Iowa district that does not border another state or a mighty river on the east or west. Some 65% of its votes are cast in Polk County, but it does not include Dallas or Warren Counties which are in the Des Moines metropolitan area. The remainder of the district is largely rural, with no city larger than 30,000. Polk County has historically voted Democratic, but has become more Republican as its white collar businesses grow and its blue collar businesses fade; the rural counties here have mostly been historically Republican. The result is a district split right down the middle, about as evenly divided as any in the nation: 49%-48% for Al Gore in 2000, 49.7%-49.6% for George W. Bush in 2004. Overall, I score the district as 51% Dem. Boswell has held the seat (or at least a seat; there was some musical chairs in the delegation with the new map in 2002) since he picked up a GOP open seat in 1996. He has always faced tough challenges. He won 54-46 and 55-45 against the same well-funded challenger in '02 and '04. This race could be competitive, but may not be.
Missouri 03 (Russ Carnahan) (#22-possibly competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Missouri consists of the south side of St. Louis, part of suburban St. Louis County and, to the south, Jefferson County and rural Ste. Genevieve County. Its St. Louis County portions are mostly suburbs close to the St. Louis City line--Clayton, Maplewood, Richmond Heights, Webster Groves, Affton, Lemay, Oakville. This is the descendant of districts dominated by St. Louis voters, but today the city casts less than 25% of its votes, fewer than in Jefferson County, where local Republicans have been making inroads; almost half are cast in St. Louis County. Ethnically, this has been a heavily German-American area since the mid-19th century. Politically, it has been Democratic since the New Deal of the 1930s. The district voted 57% for John Kerry in 2004; Ste. Genevieve was the only non-metropolitan Missouri county Kerry carried. Overall, it is 57.5% Dem. Carnahan is the son of Mel and Jean Carnahan. Mel Carnahan, of course, is the former Governor who challenged Sen. John Ashcroft in 2000 and died in a plane crash in October of that year. Carnahan went on to win that election posthumously, making Ashcroft the punchline to "losing to a dead guy" jokes as well as a bitter and vindictive Attorney General. This House seat was held for years by Dick Gephardt until his retirement last year. Russ Carnahan had an unexpectedly close race to replace him, winning 54-46 over a well-funded two-time challenger to Gephardt. It remains to be seen how heavily the GOP will target Carnahan.
Missouri 05 (Emanuel Cleaver) (#36-not likely to be competitive)
The 5th Congressional District of Missouri includes most of Kansas City, the largest city in Missouri, plus Grandview and the bulk of Independence. The more suburban slices of Jackson County to the east in Blue Springs (which is shared with the 4th District) and Lee's Summit have been filled with new subdivisions and some clashes over development. It also includes fast-growing Belton and Raymore along U.S. 71 in Cass County just to the south. One-quarter of the district's residents are black, the second highest percentage among Missouri districts. Politically, the seat has been solidly Democratic. John Kerry carried it 59%-40%. Overall, it is 61.8% Dem. It made the list because Cleaver is a former Kansas City mayor with a fair amount of baggage. His victory in 2004 was an underwhelming 57-43 against a GOPer who, to be fair, spent $3.2 million on the race, outspending Cleaver almost 3-1. It remains to be seen what kind of opposition the GOP can muster against an incumbent in this heavily Dem district.