There are going to be many contrasts in this primary, the NE Ohio Liberal vs the Southern Ohio Libetarian. As many of you are aware I am strongly in favor of Paul Hackett, first and foremost because he inspires me with his fighting spirit and take no prisoners approach - a man after my own heart.
I also strongly support him over Brown because frankly I do not think Brown can win.
To demonstrate this i crunched some numbers tonight (thank god for Access, excel and map point !)
Follow me into the extended to see what we face in Ohio and why Hackett is the only candidate that can win.
I used the 2004 Senate results between Voinovich and Fingerhut as the data set. I then added up the vote totals by county for fingerhut, calculated the % of votes each county represented for fingerhut and produced the map below.
The more blue the larger the amount of votes that county has for Fingerhut, the more red the less.
As you can see the bulk of the blue and light blue are in the northeast - and there isnt enough votes there to win. This is Browns stronghold too. For Brown to win he would have to also do well in the middle and southern regions - regions hackett has demonstrated he can be competitive in.
You see similar patterns for most Democrats, the bluer the county the more voters who vote for our guys, the redder, the less votes we get in that county. So it is apparent to anyone who can see that we must develop stronger results in areas we have failed to do.
Now if someone can tell me how Sherrod Brown is going to do that, considering it was these redder counties he got slammed in in 1992 against taft, I am all ears.
Bottom line, we dont have to win these red looking counties, just get more votes in them than we have been able to. That means appealing to a different kind of voter with a different kind of message, the kind of message that almost won hackett the OH-2 election.
Raw Data
CntyName vote %
CUYAHOGA 15.5%
FRANKLIN 10.2%
HAMILTON 7.7%
SUMMIT 5.9%
MONTGOMERY 5.2%
LUCAS 4.6%
STARK 3.4%
MAHONING 3.1%
LORAIN 2.9%
TRUMBULL 2.5%
BUTLER 2.2%
LAKE 2.0%
PORTAGE 1.5%
MEDINA 1.3%
CLARK 1.2%
GREENE 1.1%
LICKING 1.1%
CLERMONT 1.0%
WOOD 1.0%
RICHLAND 1.0%
WARREN 1.0%
ASHTABULA 0.9%
DELAWARE 0.9%
COLUMBIANA 0.9%
FAIRFIELD 0.9%
ERIE 0.8%
TUSCARAWAS 0.7%
JEFFERSON 0.7%
WAYNE 0.7%
ATHENS 0.7%
BELMONT 0.7%
GEAUGA 0.7%
SCIOTO 0.7%
ALLEN 0.7%
MIAMI 0.6%
MUSKINGUM 0.6%
WASHINGTON 0.5%
ROSS 0.5%
LAWRENCE 0.5%
MARION 0.5%
SANDUSKY 0.4%
KNOX 0.4%
SENECA 0.4%
OTTAWA 0.4%
HANCOCK 0.4%
HURON 0.4%
ASHLAND 0.3%
PICKAWAY 0.3%
GUERNSEY 0.3%
CRAWFORD 0.3%
DARKE 0.3%
BROWN 0.3%
PREBLE 0.3%
DEFIANCE 0.3%
COSHOCTON 0.3%
SHELBY 0.3%
FULTON 0.3%
PERRY 0.3%
AUGLAIZE 0.2%
PIKE 0.2%
CHAMPAIGN 0.2%
LOGAN 0.2%
UNION 0.2%
HIGHLAND 0.2%
WILLIAMS 0.2%
CARROLL 0.2%
MERCER 0.2%
HOCKING 0.2%
MORROW 0.2%
MADISON 0.2%
JACKSON 0.2%
PUTNAM 0.2%
CLINTON 0.2%
HARDIN 0.2%
VANWERT 0.2%
GALLIA 0.2%
MONROE 0.2%
HENRY 0.2%
ADAMS 0.2%
PAULDING 0.2%
MEIGS 0.2%
HARRISON 0.1%
FAYETTE 0.1%
WYANDOT 0.1%
NOBLE 0.1%
MORGAN 0.1%
HOLMES 0.1%
VINTON 0.1%