As we begin Indictments Week, let's take a minute to think about how the Presidential line of succession, as specified by the United States Constitution and under United States Code Title 3, Section 19 (a.k.a. the Presidential Succession Act of 1947), will affect the way things play out.
U.S. News had a story on a possible Cheney resignation last week, which may have been a way for the GOP to float the idea of a Condi vice presidency as a prelude to a presidency in 2008.
More after the flip.
Here, courtesy of
Wikipedia, is the current line of succession if Mr. Bush were to leave office:
- Vice President (Richard B. Cheney)
- Speaker of the House of Representatives (J. Dennis Hastert)
- President pro tempore of the Senate (Ted Stevens)
- Secretary of State (Condoleezza Rice)
- Secretary of the Treasury (John W. Snow)
- Secretary of Defense (Donald H. Rumsfeld)
- Attorney General (Alberto Gonzales)
- Secretary of the Interior (Gale Norton)
- Secretary of Agriculture (Mike Johanns)
- Secretary of Commerce (Carlos Gutierrez, ineligible)
- Secretary of Labor (Elaine Chao, ineligible)
- Secretary of Health and Human Services (Michael Leavitt)
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (Alphonso Jackson)
- Secretary of Transportation (Norman Y. Mineta)
- Secretary of Energy (Samuel W. Bodman)
- Secretary of Education (Margaret Spellings)
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs (Jim Nicholson)
If Fitzpatrick indicts Libby, Rove and other underlings, the damage to the Bush Administration will be grave, but the line of succession will remain intact.
If Cheney or Bush are indicted, however, then the chess game begins. Let's play out a few scenarios here so that we can be prepared to act as things are breaking at a fast clip next week.
Scenario 1: Cheney is indicted, but not Bush. Bush would probably want to replace him with a Gerald Ford-type legislator who is popular cross-aisle and who can win the GOP vote in 2008. Would Condi fill the bill? Would an African American and a woman be something the GOP base could support?
Scenario 2: Bush is indicted, but not Cheney. Bush might consider stepping down, but might want to stay in to fight. Some have suggested that he might want to step down in time to have someone fill in who can issue pardons to the whole gang before leaving office after November 2008. If Bush steps down, however, Cheney would move up. Cheney would not want someone who could challenge him in 2008 to be the VP. Who would he pick?
Scenario 3: If both Bush and Cheney are indicted, then the interesting game really begins. Making sure they bring in a loyalist who will pardon as many indictees as possible is a priority, as is bringing in someone who can lead the party out of this debacle in 2006 and 2008. Who might that be? Certainly Hastert is not charismatic enough. Stevens is a stern father figure type who might be what the GOP base needs, but he is so tied to pork barrel politics that his appeal might be compromised.
One way to get past this significant crisis might be to have an historic cross-party leadership duo, with someone such as Hastert as president and Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta as VP. Mineta is a Democrat with a long track record in Congress representing the San Jose area before being appointed to the Clinton cabinet as Commerce Secretary and by Bush as Transportation secretary.
Anyway, let the speculation games begin!