Maybe it is being an Astros fan and watching a few leads go bye-bye with walk off homers, and going to a victory party believing the press that Gore was a certifiable winner in Florida and the president elect, and that Kerry in exit polls was the next president elect...but I'm beginning to believe we are going to be disappointed, particularly if we're hoping for the Niger forgeries to be at the center. My reasons after the fold.
This is not really a tin foil hat diary, that Fitzy is a bad prosecutor, been bought off, etc. I do think he's meticulous and honest, but I think he knows you don't raise charges unless there is an 80% chance of conviction, and you take on sitting VP's and Presidents (and their close advisors) if there is only a 100% chance of conviction.
There are a few things leading to this feeling to me.
- The Chalabi trip to Washington Chalabi, yes the guy we once said was a spy for Iran, is now scheduled for a trip to DC in November, with the added statement that Chalabi now again looks like he is in favor with Washington as a "suitable Iraqi Prime Minister". I think he only gets that job with Washington support if there are no indictments. Other odd things about this announcement today is that Rice and Hadley will be meeting with him...he's the Oil Minister, why would the National Security Advisor need to meet with the Oil Minister of Iraq? Why would they announce that today?
- Front line witnesses "unavailable for comment" -- I think another link in the chain of evidence was David Kelly, who "killed himself". He did this a week after Plame was outed, recall. I'm thinking he knew about the plan to fake everything, and being gone, there is no one alive that will accuse Blair of anything. If the larger Niger deal was done, it had to have been done with Blair's approval or knowledge, along with the approval/knowledge of the Italians. I just think too much died with Kelly to put together the larger case, and the British government sealed the inquiry down fast.
- Miller worked deal with Fitzy -- I think the reaon Miller did not want to testify had nothing to do with Libby's consent. More to the point was the deal to avoid discussing Chalabi in her testimony, which tells me that Fitzy has dropped the Chalabi part of the story.
- McNulty takes Bush job -- the appointment of Paul McNulty to #2 at the Department of Justice, as reported on TPM, is troublesome for the full Fitzmas investigation. McNulty, being the AIPAC prosecutor that is alleged to have given his work to Fitzy, joining the dark side tells me that there will be no prosecution of the "bigger story" of the Niger docs, at the very least. Which leaves us with the outing of Plame as the only item to charge, along with obstruction and perjury.
- White House Spin Machine -- I think there is little doubt that the weekend trip to say "perjury and obstruction are technical violations of the law, not worthy of special prosecutors", is something Fitzy has been weighing...and the potential defendants know it. I think they are talking directly to Fitzy through these media sources, trying to tell him they will go after him as a prosecutor if he chooses to just indict on the non-Niger charges. I think he knew this already, but I think they knew he has dropped the Niger story already, which is why it is finally making the airwaves as a potential indictment area.
- The web site -- I know there is speculation that "you don't have a web site if you don't indict", I think that is wishful thinking. I think you have a website when you have a closure of any investigation.
So there you have it. I think at the very most, we will get indictments on obstruction and perjury with Libby, on perjury with Rove, on perjury with Hadley. At the very most. But I think the Niger story is in a drawer, never to be opened.