I've been watching the reactions unfold on TV and in the blogosphere in the last few hours, and have felt a mix of emotions. Vindication that Libby is getting nailed - after all, I told my parents in late 2003 that I had a hunch that he was the main culprit. Unease that Turdblossom and others have eluded the net so far. Pride that America's legal system includes public officials as fine as Patrick Fitzgerald. And more than a hint of schadenfreude at what appears to be an administration in freefall and disarray.
But one other thought is gnawing at me, and crowding out all of the others: the idea that this outcome is exactly what the Bush Administration hoped to get, back in mid/late-2003 when they first realized that they had screwed up, and they first realized that this episode had the chance to unmask and expose their venality and lies - not just about Valerie Plame, but about the entire leadup to the war in Iraq.
Their overriding goals at that time (late 2003) would have been clear: protect the President and the Vice President, and delay the case beyond the 2004 elections. If there were to be secondary casualties along the way, so be it - that's the price to pay for joining the Praetorian Guard in the first place. But keep Bush and Cheney out of the story as long as possible. It's like chess - sacrifice the pawns, knights, and rooks to protect the (two-headed) king.
I wouldn't be surprised if there was a meeting in the White House on or around September 2003 to develop this strategy. Rove and Libby would have both been there. Probably also Bolton, Matalin, Bartlett, Gonzales, among others, and maybe also the big dog himself - Cheney. The elements of the strategy: lie and obfuscate to hide the parts of the narrative where Cheney and Bush were involved, in the 2+ months between Nicholas Kristof's story and Novak's piece. And do whatever they could to delay revelations about the case past the 2004 election. There's little chance that we'll know about this meeting, if it took place, until 40-50 years from now when Presidential records are declassified, since they would have only included people inside the very inner `circle of trust' - definitely not Powell or Tenet and their direct subordinates.
I don't know whether Judy Miller was a witting or unwitting accomplice to this plot. Her convenient amnesia on the key facts of the case, her personal interest in protecting her own reputation on the WMD issue, and Scooter's evocative prose in the Sept. 2005 jailhouse letter to her all suggest that she was in fact a witting accomplice. In any case, her 1st Amendment stand had the practical effect of delaying Fitzgerald's investigation by an entire year, as Fitzgerald himself said directly today:
"I would have wished nothing better that, when the subpoenas were issued in August 2004, witnesses testified then, and we would have been here in October 2004 instead of October 2005. No one would have went to jail."
Yes, October 2004. The month before the Presidential election. And yes, in that case, Judy would not have gone to jail. But the eruption of this scandal, and the revelations about Cheney's connections to it, would have thrown the campaign into disarray, and completely undermined the Bush administration's credibility on national security issues. And John Kerry and John Edwards would be sitting in the White House today.
I remember talking to friends and co-workers about the Presidential election in the late spring and early summer of June 2004, saying that the Kerry campaign had several "aces in the hole" that were going to knock out Bush from his bid for reelection. These were, I thought then: (1) the 9/11 Commission Report, which did have a moderate impact, (2) the SSCI report in July 2004, which turned out to be a sham, (3) the investigation into Bush's TANG files, and most importantly, (4) Fitzgerald's investigation of the Valerie Plame case. I was certain in mid-2004 that this would be wrapped up before the election; after all, it seemed like most of the pertinent facts were already well-established in the media record, and there were numerous suggestions in the media then that this investigation was moving forward rapidly.
That didn't come to pass - we now know, because of Miller's (and Cooper's) stand on this issue.
The upshot: their strategy worked, in spite of Libby's indictment, and in spite of the fact that Rove will (I think) still probably be indicted. (Bishop takes pawn.) Bush and Cheney were reelected. John Roberts is on the Supreme Court, and somebody to the right of Sandra Day O'Connor will soon be joining him on it. We're still in Iraq without a clear strategy for how to get out of there, at an expense of $6 billion/month, and instead of focusing on kicking al-Qaeda's ass. Major parts of the federal government are becoming increasingly dysfunctional or neutered, e.g. the EPA, FCC, and FDA. And we're still piling up debt at a furious pace, living in an era of fiscal profligacy not seen by a major power since the Roman days of panem et circenses.
That's why I'm saying in this post (borrowing from Les Gelb's excellent analysis of the Vietnam War) that the System Worked. The Bush Administration is perhaps feeling vulnerable and under siege today. But I know that they are secretly taking comfort in the fact that they have the executive branch in their control for another 39 long months.
I'm not writing this to be like Debbie Downer in that horrible SNL sketch, and dampen the euphoria of the moment. I think we should still feel vindicated about what's happened today - not as Democrats, but as Americans who believe in the primacy of the rule of law. But we should be sober and vigilant about the tasks that lie ahead, and the venal competence of those who we are up against. It's going to take years to undo the damage that the Bush Administration has wrought on this country and the world in the last five years. And it's going to require a concerned and organized effort on the part of the various forces and entities of change to advance our causes. We can't afford more sniping and backbiting, and we can't afford any more bullshit like the whole Gilliard/Tim Kaine tempest in a teapot that's been wracking this site in the last two days. The road ahead is going to require dedication and professionalism - today there are too many incompetents, freelancers, and ego-trippers working in the campaign apparati of the Democratic Party, and they need to learn some manners and develop their business skills, or get the fuck out. And it's going to require institution-building, mirroring what the right-wing has done to build the right-wing-pundit support network (aka welfare state) in the past thirty years.
We can do this. 2006 is critical, and 2008 is even bigger. No more letting them get away with bullshit, and no more letdowns. Peace and good night.