Yet more evidence that pollster John Zogby has jumped the shark. A new Zogby/Wall Street Interactive poll out of Arizona shows popular Democratic governor Janet Napolitano in a statistical dead-heat with political neophyte Don Goldwater (the nephew of the late Arizona senator of the same last name). The results of the poll, reported earlier today on www.azcentral.com, show Napolitano leading Goldwater 47% to 45%, well within Zogby's 4-point margin of error.
Fortunately (or unfortunately), there seems to be widespread agreement amongst Arizona political operatives that Zogby is out of his freaking mind. Read on to find out why.
Although our brethren in freeperville are rejoicing, many Republicans are openly admitting that Zogby's numbers are screwy. Kurt Davis, a longtime operative in the state GOP with close ties to state party chair Matt Salmon, told azcentral.com,
"Based on the methodology of using people to sign up to participate in the poll, it isn't worth being used for toilet paper."
Zogby's findings were also dismissed by Tucson-based pollster Margaret Kenski, herself a Republican who has done work for Senator Jon Kyl, the state party headquarters, and even the Goldwater Institute. Kenski told azcentral.com: "The problem with this is that in no way do you get a random sample. Everything I've seen or done shows Napolitano with a 20-point lead." This condemnation is no small thing. Despite Kenski's own political leanings, she generally is a straight-shooter who minces no words about reality. I heard her speak at an academic conference at the University of Arizona in October 2002 and found her to be refreshingly honest. She accurately predicted every single statewide race in 2002 within 3% points.
Napolitano laughed off the poll, telling reporters that Zogby predicted that Kerry would defeat Bush by a landslide. Sigh. I wish he had been right then.
Thins for Arizona Democrats are looking up. Napolitano will defeat Ken Bennett or whoever Republicans throw up against her (Goldwater isn't even considered a serious contender at this point). Jim Pederson will give incumbent wingnut Jon Kyl a run for his money in the Senate race, both figuratively and literally. Let's just hope that we get better pollsters soon.