According to the New York Post's Capitol reporter, the New York GOP is in some serious trouble, based on what happened Tuesday.
In an op-ed piece (this is a Murdoch paper) today, Fred Dicker predicts that 2006 will be a historic Democratic year:
Now, Republicans contemplate next November with a combination of fear and anger.
They're afraid that what awaits them in 2006 is the loss of the state Senate, a significant number of congressional seats, the governorship, and every other statewide office. And they're probably right.
They're angry because they know -- especially those lucky enough to have been present in 1994 -- that it wasn't inevitable that they'd find themselves on the brink of catastrophe.
They're right there, too.
But the seeds of disaster were planted years ago and the growing season is almost at an end. Next year, Republicans will reap the bitter harvest their opportunism has sown.
More good news below.
Dicker points out that the GOP is losing in its strongholds -- the suburbs, especially Long Island, and upstate. And with Spitzer and Hillary headed to landslides at the top of the ticket next year, EVERY GOP candidate on the ballot is in trouble.
Dicker's analysis is a bit too Murdochian; he calls out the Pataki-led GOP for being not conservative enough, as if being more conservative would help them win ANYTHING.
The New York GOP reached the apex of its success with Pataki's stunning victory over Mario Cuomo in 1994. It began its decline in 1997, when Pataki -- under pressure from such key advisers as then-U.S. Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, Arthur Finkelstein and Kieran Mahoney -- entered into a Faustian pact to transform himself from the tough-talking, Newt Gingrich-like conservative who defeated Cuomo into what is often called a RINO -- Republican in name only -- in order to guarantee his own, and D'Amato's, re-election in 1998.
Let's hope the following NY GOP Congress members take Dicker's advice and run as true-red supporters of George Bush and Tom DeLay.
This list has district number, name, place and percentage of the vote in 2004. Those under 60 (Kuhl, Reynolds, Fossella and Boehlert, who may retire) are obviously vulnerable; and some of those in the 60s (like the Miami Mob Leader) are more vulnerable than they look, since they faced weak, underfunded opponents. That will not happen (at least in the Miami Mob Leader's case) next year.
3/Peter King (Nassau County), 63%
13/Vito Fossella (Staten Island), 59%
19/Sue Kelly (Westchester County), 66%
20/Miami Mob Leader John Sweeney (eastern upstate, from Poughkeepsie to Glens Falls), 63%
23/John McHugh (North Country), 71%
24/Sherwood Boehlert (Central NY, the most "moderate" of this gang), 57%
25/Jim Walsh (Syracuse area), 90% (no Dem opponent)
26/Tom Reynolds (suburbs/rural between Rochester and Buffalo), 55% (Reynolds is part of the DeLay gang, as head of the Republican Congressional campaign Committee)
29/Randy Kuhl (western Southern Tier), 50%.
Navy veteran Eric Massa has begun running against Kuhl and lawyer Kirsten Gillibrand is all but in against the Miami Mob Leader.
With the winds favoring the Dems in 2006, we will be seeing more excellent candidates step up than ever. And taking two or three seats from the GOP in NY will set us up for taking back the whole House.