(Adapted from a
post at Needlenose.)
Between Rep. Murtha's blockbuster speech yesterday and the recent admissions by John Kerry and John Edwards that their pro-war votes in 2002 were mistakes, it's clear that momentum for the U.S. to withdraw is snowballing. The American public is coming around to the views of the Democratic base, and politicians are finally following.
Unfortunately, I think this is happening almost too easily -- and in a way that threatens Democratic prospects in the long run. Although I don't see any reason to doubt Rep. Murtha's sincerity, it seems clear that prominent Dems like Kerry and Edwards are turning against the war now for the same reason they voted for it originally: they're caving in to political pressure.
As welcome as it is for them to admit their errors, there's little in their statements that reframes the Iraq debate to keep Republicans from winning again (in 2008 or afterward) by reviving the same old us-strong, Dems-weak stereotypes.
Could the GOP do that even despite the Iraq disaster ... even if a tidal wave of public opinion eventually endorses a "cut and run" withdrawal? Sure. It happened with Vietnam, didn't it?
The problem, then as now, is withdrawing American troops while the debate is still trapped in the frame of "showing resolve" versus cowardly retreat. Given enough cognitive dissonance of endless stay-the-course rhetoric against a backdrop of military stalemate and mounting casualties, the American public will eventually say, "You're right -- we don't have the will to fight it out. Bring our boys home!"
We reached that breaking point in Vietnam, and it's rapidly approaching with Iraq. Consider this report from the New York Times tonight:
Shaken by the Iraq war and the rise of anti-American sentiment around the world, Americans are turning inward, according to a Pew survey of United States opinion leaders and the general public.
The survey, conducted this fall and released today, found a revival of isolationist feelings among the public similar to the sentiment that followed the Vietnam War in the 1970's and the end of the Cold War in the 1990's.
. . . Forty-two percent of Americans think that the United States should "mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own," according to the survey, which was conducted by the Pew Research Center in association with the Council on Foreign Relations.
That attitude may sound fine right now, with 2 or 3 Americans dying daily in Iraq -- but here's the danger:
Even though the public might reluctantly endorse withdrawing to stop the pain of the moment, they won't be proud of it. And when another threat emerges (say, due to another terrorist attack), they'll just flip-flop and go looking for another Republican strong daddy to protect them.
That's why, as I've been whining recently over at Needlenose, Democrats can't just settle for Bushite incompetence to hand them a token election cycle -- they have to reframe both Republicans and themselves to change voters' fundamental perceptions of both parties.
I've also ranted frequently for the past year and a half about the kind of message Democrats need to begin forcing that change. To start with, rather than merely sucking up to their party's base by saying that Bush lied and they shouldn't have believed him, leading Democrats should suck up to put themselves on the side of swing voters who also supported the war at first -- saying "I trusted the President, and he betrayed that trust."
Then, they should translate that single lapse of trust to a broader case of the threats the Bushites aren't protecting us from, and how a Democratic-led government would protect them. As I wrote last December, "That's the core of a successful national security message: 'They won't do whatever it takes to protect you; we will.'"
And that's the opportunity the Democratic party is missing right now. As long as the debate is Dubya saying, "Be strong enough to stay the course," versus Democrats saying, "No, it hurts too much -- bring the troops home!", any political victory we win is going to turn into defeat eventually. But when it becomes replacing an irresponsible and failed strategy for keeping America safe with one that is responsible and actually works, we can win in the long run, too.