Mason-Dixon. 6/14-16. MoE 4%. (No trend lines)
Nelson (D) 53
Harris (R) 36
"This is one of those rare cases where, going in, the challenger has higher negative ratings than the incumbent," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll for the Orlando Sentinel and WESH 2 News. "At this point, when you look at these numbers, I don't know how she's going to win this race."
Harris, who achieved national notoriety for her pivotal role as secretary of state during Florida's disputed 2000 presidential recount, announced two weeks ago that she was planning to challenge Nelson.
But the move drew a lukewarm reception from Republican leaders, who fear she could lose to Nelson, whom they have targeted for defeat. The poll underscores this rising unease, which already has led the White House, Gov. Jeb Bush and other leading Republicans to court House Speaker Allan Bense, R-Panama City, as a potential GOP primary rival.
This race will be a definite oddity -- one in which the campaign becomes a referendum not on the incumbent, but on the challenger.
Which is great, considering that Nelson is our most endangered incumbent.