A poll taken by Ha'aretz Monday evening shows Sharon's National Responsibility Party finishing first with 30 seats; Labor second with 26; and the Likud with only 15 (down from their current 40).
If Shinnui and Meretz-Yahad joined, a center-left coalition would have 66 seats (out of 120). A (to me) much less desirable Sharon-Labor-ultra-Orthodox coalition would have 71 seats.
Two little noticed changes in the Israeli election system may have a major impact on the results:
- A party now must win 2%, instead of 1.5%, of the national vote to get into the Knesset; and
- Parties no longer may make deals to pool their "surplus votes," i.e., votes beyond what either party by itself can use to secure an additional Knesset seat. Instead, surplus votes will be allocated according to a system of proportional representation.
Together, these changes favor the larger parties, and may reduce at least somewhat the instability created by having so many tiny parties.
On an individual level, although Israelis do not vote directly for Prime Minister, 37% favor Sharon, 22% Peretz, and 15% the yet-to-be-chosen Likud candidate.
Obviously, such early polling has to be regarded as merely suggestive. Considering how Peretz came from behind to defeat Shimon Peres, however, and in light of the right wing's likely vicious, and quite justified, personal attacks on Sharon, the balance between National Responsibility and Labor could shift more in Labor's favor. (That's my wish. Were I a bettor, however, at the moment I'd keep my money on Sharon repeating as Prime Minister.)
Current expectations are that Shimon Peres and Haim Ramon, who did not attend today's Labor Knesset faction meeting, will join Sharon's new party.
Also, Ha'aretz reports:
Meretz-Yahad is expected to lose one-third of its strength as the voters go across to Labor under Peretz, giving him an additional two seats. Yossi Sarid's call for joining forces with a Peretz-led party has had an effect.
Meanwhile, Avirama Golan has a somewhat cynical view of Sharon's departure from the Likud, summed up by her title, "He walked, but they pushed":
The tempestuous reactions to Ariel Sharon's decision to form a new party fall into the trap he set: Sharon seemingly encountered a group of rebels in his party, decided not to give in, and got up and quit his political home. But in fact he was never in charge of the moves - they controlled him.
As a politician with sharp instincts, Sharon threw himself a lifesaver at the last minute before the ship sank, because the Likud continues to exist as a gargantuan machine, kept on respirator by moneyed interests, but as a political movement has no real raison d'etre.