As I explained yesterday, I believe that an immediate withdrawal from Iraq could have very negative consequences. So then, what needs to happen before we can bring the troops home?
Some level of stability needs to be reached in Iraq, and measures need to be taken to reengage the Middle East and the world body in Iraq's future. Just as importantly, we need to take decisive action to undercut the support of the insurgency, support which I believe has been in large part sustained by our post-invasion actions.
Indeed in many ways, I fear that our own actions have greatly helped the insurgency in Iraq to survive and thrive, even while the insurgency is killing and
terrorizing the people of Iraq. We're all quite familiar with the horrific images and accounts of US soldiers torturing Iraqi's. Somehow, I don't think this helps stop the insurgency, or helps get us out of Iraq. So, Bush goes out and says
"We do not torture"... and yet
new reports of detainee abuse continue to surface, including "peeling the skin" off of bodies, with some detainees ending up paralyzed. This sends a clear message to the insurgents, to the people of Iraq, and to the whole Middle East: the United States Government has and will continue to torture. Not exactly the best way to get people to stop supporting the insurgents.
Not only do we have Gitmo, not only do we have who knows how many prisons in Iraq, we now apparently have secret prisons in Eastern Europe? The Europeans sure seem to be taking this seriously, so the US must too right? Not exactly. Not only did Condi Rice's spokesman today refuse to even confirm or deny the reports of secret prisons, he stated that "The United States in its actions does not break US law." Great, just great, this really, you know, address what the Europeans are complaining about, breaking US laws. We've got enough detainees to fill a freaking stadium! I'm sure the Iraqi people and the Middle East LOVE that. And then we have this wonderful white phosphorus situation. Somehow I don't think using chemical weapons against Iraq's civilians is a good way to stop the insurgency? Not going to win any hearts and minds by melting people's skin off.....
So what's the point of all this? I think that there is a pretty clear reason why the situation in Iraq is so terrible. Bush has been leading our country as if he WANTED to enrage the entire Muslim world. What more can he possibly do wrong, give an interview on FOX and burn the Koran? He has been leading completely blindly, without consulting the opposition, congress, or apparently even the experts in most cases. And how stupid must I be if I think we can start to change the course now?
Well, I do think that we can, and that we can begin fixing things now rather than letting everything go completely to hell first (and despite how bad it is right now, yes I do think it could get far, far worse). I also think that we have to at least try. Bush's poll numbers are stuck in the 30's. More and more, members of his own party want him to stay the heck away. The man is politically crippled , and I'm convinced that he can no longer shame his entire party into blindly following him. Even more importantly, he has completely lost the support of the country, and an amazing 64 percent of the country says that the country is heading in the wrong direction. With next year's elections rapidly approaching, congress cannot afford to continue on like they have been, and I believe that no matter how cynical their intentions they are going to have to take action to fix this mess.
It becomes increasingly clear that some American troops will begin coming home soon. This is a good thing, if the Democrats and the Congress do everything in their power to make sure it is done responsibly. If one thing is clear, it is that Bush is more concerned with playing politics than with the good of our soldiers. As such, we need to be incredibly wary of the White House actions regarding troop withdrawal. We cannot afford to accept this at face value, Bush has screwed the US and the troops far to many times to be trusted now.
Earlier this month, the Saudi's pledged $1 Billion towards Iraq aid. Well, it's about damn time . For Iraq to stabilize, we need to get all the other nations in the region involved. By all appearances, there isn't even an attempt at dialogue happening right now. It's actually pretty shocking to consider how little effort Bush seems to have made to involve the other nations in the region, even those friendly to us. We have to continue to pressure Bush to reengage the world body. I tend to feel that as long as the US directly controls Iraq militarily, there will be some form of an insurgency fighting against us. We can begin by no longer threatening Iran, and starting constructive talks with them. The EU is trying to and there's no real reason that we shouldn't be doing the same.
We need to continue pressuring Democrats to fight against torture. We need to reaffirm our commitment to the Geneva Convention. For us to have any chance of success in Iraq, the United States has to take a firm stand against torture now. Our president has no credibility on the issue, so it is up to the Congress to say to the world loud and clear that we are not going to continue torture. McCain's amendment was clearly a step in the right direction here.
And how about the Iraqi army? Like most people here, I find it shocking that after all this time, there isn't anything even remotely resembling a national army/force/whatever in Iraq. The latest word from the people who DO actually know what's going on (Gen. Dempsey) seems to say that progress is being made. I think that the Iraqi trainees would be much more likely to actually give a damn if we stopped torturing their fellow Iraqi's. Regardless, this is where much of the importance ultimately lays, and there needs to be some national army before a majority of our troops leave. I also wonder if it's time to start thinking about other possibilites, such as working to bring the various militias into a broader force.
I'm glad that at least some of the troops will be with their familes soon. However I'm deeply suspiscious of Bush not making a withdrawal into a complete catastrophy; afterall, he has with everything else. A botched withdrawal, even partial, could end up keeping US troops in Iraq even longer.