A just released Gallup poll shows 63% of Americans believe President Bush either did something unethical or illegal in the PlameGate affair. (See below for link) Richard Morin and Claudia Deane write in the Washington Post Staff, on Tuesday, April 11, 2006 that the latest WaPo poll confirms President Bush's Approval rates continue to free fall to new lows.
Poll Finds Bush Job Rating at New Low:An Election-Year Blow to the GOP
This diary surveys, the WaPo-ABC, AP-Ipsos, and Fox polls and also provides links to my favorite places for tracking Presidential Approval Polls: RealClear Politics, and PoltKatz, as well as links for the top 15 to 20 polling organization websites. Also, just for fun I've put a link to the PollKatz BushFlush graphic which plots five years of Bush approval flushing down a toilet. (About 10 inches down text if you want to skip my keen analysis. LOL)
The Washington Post-ABC News Poll. come on the hills of similar new lows in the Fox Poll (36%), and AP-Ipsos poll,( 36%) all showing about a 3% drop from the last polls approximately a month ago.
And the WaPo polls show 60% disapprove of Bush's job performance.
The deteriorating conditions in Iraq and ongoing scandals, as well as long series of incompetent blunders from Katrina, Harriet Miers, Ports of Dubai Security, and Immigration fiascos seem to be contributing to loss of support among even stalwarts GOP voters.
The survey found that 38 percent of the public approve of the job Bush is doing, down three percentage points in the past month and his worst showing in Post-ABC polling since he became president. Sixty percent disapprove of his performance.
With less than seven months remaining before the midterm elections, Bush's political troubles already appear to be casting a long shadow over them. Barely a third of registered voters, 35 percent, approve of the way the Republican-led Congress is doing its job -- the lowest level of support in nine years.
The negative judgments about the president and the congressional majority reflect the breadth of the GOP's difficulties and suggest that the problems of each may be mutually reinforcing. Although the numbers do not represent a precipitous decline over recent surveys, the fact that they have stayed at low levels over recent months indicates that the GOP is confronting some fundamental obstacles with public opinion rather than a patch of bad luck.
Gallup Poll Shows 63% of Americans Believe Bush Committed Illegal Acts
Editors and Publishers report a Gallup poll that shows 63% of Americans believe President Bush did something illegal. Gallup: Most Americans Critical of President in CIA Leak Case
NEW YORK A new Gallup poll released today finds that most Americans are critical of President Bush's actions in the Plame/CIA leak scandal, but only one in four is following the matter closely.
Overall, 63% of Americans believe Bush did something either illegal (21%) or unethical (42%), while 28% say he did nothing wrong. While many more Democrats are critical, 3 in 10 Republicans also find that Bush did something illegal or unethical.
The more closely people are following the issue, the more likely they are to say he did something illegal rather than merely unethical.
The poll, conducted April 7-9, 2006, shows that just 25% of Americans are following the matter "very" closely, while another 39% are following the issue "somewhat" closely. Another 36% are not following the issue closely at all.
Conflicting Data On Likelihood of November Party Voting?
While generic survey show voters say they favor Democrats of over Republicans 55% to 40%, the polls also show 59% still approve of their own local representative. Democrats still face a challenge to link local leaders to national dissatisfaction with Bush and the GOP.
A majority of registered voters, 55 percent, say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their House district, while 40 percent support the Republican candidate. That is the largest share of the electorate favoring Democrats in Post-ABC polls since the mid-1980s.
This grim news for the GOP is offset somewhat by the finding that 59 percent of voters still say they approve of their own representative. But even these numbers are weaker than in recent off-year election cycles and identical to support of congressional incumbents in June 1994 -- five months before Democrats lost control of Congress to Republicans.
Breakdown On Issues Show Promising Progress For Democrats
The breakdown of favor ability components show Democrats making progress on issues ranging from trust on dealing with Iraq, economy and health care, immigration, dealing with drug benefits for the elderly, and dealing with corruption.
As Bush and the Republicans falter, Democrats have emerged as the party most Americans trust to deal with such issues as Iraq, the economy and health care. By 49 to 42 percent, Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans to do a better job of handling Iraq.
Democrats also hold a six-percentage-point advantage over the GOP (49 percent to 43 percent) as the party most trusted to handle the economy. Their lead swells to double digits on such as issues as immigration (12 points), prescription drug benefits for the elderly (28 points), health care (32 points) and dealing with corruption in Washington (25 points).
The public divides evenly on only one issue: terrorism, with 46 percent expressing more confidence in the Democrats and 45 percent trusting Republicans on a top voting concern that the GOP counts on dominating.
45% of Americans Now Favor Censuring Bush
The depth of public dissatisfaction with Bush and the highly partisan nature of the criticism are underscored by public attitudes toward efforts by some in Congress to censure him or impeach him for his actions as president.
Democratic and Republican congressional leaders view both scenarios as remote possibilities. Still, more than four in 10 Americans -- 45 percent -- favor censuring or formally reprimanding Bush for authorizing wiretaps of telephone calls and e-mails of terrorism suspects without court permission. Two-thirds of Democrats and half of all independents, but only one in six Republicans, support censuring Bush, the poll found.
Last month, Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.) introduced a resolution in the Senate to censure Bush. A majority of Americans, 56 percent, said his move was driven more by politics than by principle.
AP-Ipsos and Foz both released polls several days ago showing Bush achieving new lows in his approval for these as well. AP-Ipsos and Fox both show Bush now at 36%, which for the AP polls is a three point drop from their previous poll.
And this polling occurred prior to the scandals breaking at the end of the week. You may recall the Pew poll several weeks ago showed Bush at 33% so don't be confused that today's reports are increases. Bush continues to decline despite Rove's strategy of having him dance and move across the stage.
Ron Fournier from the AP write on April 7, 2006 that Bush, GOP Approval Ratings Find New Lows
President Bush's approval ratings hit a series of new lows in an AP-Ipsos poll that also shows Republicans surrendering their advantage on national security -- grim election-year news for a party struggling to stay in power.
Democratic leaders predicted they will seize control of one or both chambers of Congress in November. Republicans said they feared the worst unless the political landscape quickly changes.
Just 36 percent of the public approves of Bush's job performance, his lowest-ever rating in AP-Ipsos polling. By contrast, the president's job approval rating was 47 percent among likely voters just before Election Day 2004 and a whopping 64 percent among registered voters in October 2002.
Republicans are getting spooked as Bush's steady decline seems to be dragging them down with him. Bush has been losing about 1% per month on average for over a year. And their may be some indications that this rate of decline is increasing to 1.5 or more. It will take a few more months to tell.
But based on the detracting conditions of the apparent core drivers such as the Iraq war, and scandals, GOP observers few causes for hope.
How Bush Compares To Clinton, Reagan, Eisenhower, and Nixon
By comparison, Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had public approval in the mid 60s at this stage of their second terms in office, while Dwight Eisenhower was close to 60 percent, according to Gallup polls. Richard Nixon, who was increasingly tangled up in the Watergate scandal, was in the high 20s in early 1974.
Just 30 percent of the public approves of the GOP-led Congress' job performance, and Republicans seem to be shouldering the blame.
"These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had," GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. "The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one."
These favorable swings on the breakdowns on approval issues are all encouraging for Democrats and may portend fundamental long terms shifts in how voters view the parties on issues such as foreign policy, the Iraq War, and who should control Congress.
* Only 40 percent of the public approves of Bush's performance on foreign policy and the war on terror, another low-water mark for his presidency. That's down 9 points from a year ago. Just before the 2002 election, 64 percent of registered voters backed Bush on terror and foreign policy.
* Just 35 percent of the public approves of Bush's handling of Iraq, his lowest in AP-Ipsos polling.
"He's in over his head," said Diane Heller, 65, a Pleasant Valley, N.Y., real estate broker and independent voter.
By a 49-33 margin, the public favors Democrats over Republicans when asked which party should control Congress.
That 16-point Democratic advantage is the largest the party has enjoyed in AP-Ipsos polling.
On an issue the GOP has dominated for decades, Republicans are now locked in a tie with Democrats -- 41 percent each -- on the question of which party people trust to protect the country. Democrats made their biggest national security gains among young men, according to the AP-Ipsos poll, which had a 3 percentage point margin of error.
These are the most encouraging reports on all of this issues in a very long time for Democrats. If we concentrate on winning these elections in November and follow up in 2008 we could be on the verge of a historic turn around.
GOP Getting Worried
"We're in an exceptionally challenging electoral environment," said Rep. Tom Cole (news, bio, voting record) of Oklahoma, a former GOP strategist. "We start off on a battlefield today that is tilted in their direction, and that's when you have to use the advantages you have."
Those include the presidential "bully pulpit" and the "structural, tactical advantages" built into the system, Cole said.
One of those advantages is a political map that is gerrymandered to put House incumbents in relatively safe districts, meaning Democrats have relatively few opportunities to pick up the 15 seats they need to gain control.
Howard Dean Now Expects Us To Win The Congress
Howard Dean is certainly feeling his oats.
"I think we will win the Congress," Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean said, breaking the unwritten rule against raising expectations.
"Everything is moving in our direction. If it keeps moving in our direction, it's very reasonable to say there will be a Democratic Senate and House," said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Still Some Uphill Challenges For Democrats?
Despite these encouraging trends, Democrats still need to be realistic about some of the extra challenging the GOP have arranged for us by extensive use of gerrymandering buy Tom Delay and his minions.
Strategists in both parties say it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Democrats to seize control of Congress.
First, the elections would need to be nationalized. Democrats hope to do that with a burgeoning ethics scandal focused on relationships between GOP lobbyists and lawmakers.
Secondly, the public would need to be in a throw-the-bums-out mood. It's unclear whether that is the case, but 69 percent of Americans believes the nation is headed in the wrong direction -- the largest percentage during the Bush presidency and up 13 points from a year ago.
Third, staunch GOP voters would need to stay home. Nobody can predict whether that will happen, but a growing number of Republicans disagree with their leaders in Washington about immigration, federal spending and other issues.
Bush's approval rating is down 12 points among Republicans since a year ago. Six-in-10 Republicans said they disapproved of the GOP-led Congress.
"I'd just as soon they shut (Congress) down for a few years," said Robert Hirsch, 72, a Republican-leaning voter in Chicago. "All they do is keep passing laws and figuring out ways to spend our money."
So good news all around on this weeks poll releases. Just for fun I'd like to share with you a couple of my favorite places to examine graphs.
I wish I could show you them here directly, and I worked out the links to do so. However, I just double checked the dkos guidelines on hotlinks and sadly now realize the posting these next to most cool graphics here would violate the guidelines. Which I support by the way. I understand the bandwidth issues.
So unless some more knowledgeable representative of the site tells me I've over interpreted the guidelines, I will have to send you off to sections of the PollKatz site with the links below.
And you should be able to return by clicking the return button in your browser.
If you love polling information or mathematical charts, I can guarantee it will be worth the trip.
That Great Flushing Sound Is Bush Bushes Polls Going Down The Toilet
My favorite just for fun graphic is offered by PollKatz in the form of a six year Bush Approval Chart plotted on concentric circles showing how Bush's approval is flushing right down the toilet. What a great way to shape our expectations for further decline.
Bush Flush Graphic of Approval Polls Going Down the Toilet
Best Time Series of Five Years of Bush's Approval Polls
My favorite time series plot of long term Bush Approval is also at Pollkatz. The professor has tracked the top ten of so polling organizations polls for over five years in a long glorious slide. And this plot shows the blips Bush received from the bombing of Afghanistan, the invasion of Iraq, several security alerts, and the election.
It also raises concern about what Bush's real motivations for this rumored and terrifying bombing of Iran might be.
Pollkatz Five Year Time Series Of Top Bush Approval Polls
Best Overview Summary Of All Top Polling Organizations Bush Approval Polls
I check www.realclearpolitics first thing every morning and last thing every night. This web site also offer a list of ten or so top recommended longer essays and journal articles (not the drudge or Huffingtonpost newspaper articles rotated each morning and evening.
Real Clear Politics Link
<H2>RealClearPolitics Poll Averages SM</H2>
<div id="poll-title">President Bush Job Approval</div><div id="poll-body">
Poll | Date (mm-dd) | Approve | Disapprove | Spread |
RCP Average | 04-03 - 04-09 | 37.7% | 57.4% | <font color="red">-19.7%</font> |
CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 04-07 - 04-09 | 37% | 60% | <font color="red">-23%</font> |
Cook/RT Strategies | 04-06 - 04-09 | 37% | 56% | <font color="red">-19%</font> |
CBS News | 04-06 - 04-09 | 37% | 56% | <font color="red">-19%</font> |
ABC News/Wash Post | 04-06 - 04-09 | 38% | 60% | <font color="red">-22%</font> |
Rasmussen | 04-06 - 04-08 | 43% | 55% | <font color="red">-12%</font> |
FOX News | 04-04 - 04-05 | 36% | 53% | <font color="red">-17%</font> |
AP-Ipsos | 04-03 - 04-05 | 36% | 62% | <font color="red">-26%</font> |
Time | 03-29 - 03-30 | 37% | 57% | <font color="red">-20%</font> |
Democracy Corps (D) | 03-16 - 03-20 | 40% | 57% | <font color="red">-17%</font> |
Newsweek | 03-16 - 03-17 | 36% | 58% | <font color="red">-22%</font> |
Gallup | 03-13 - 03-16 | 37% | 59% | <font color="red">-22%</font> |
FOX News | 03-14 - 03-15 | 39% | 51% | <font color="red">-12%</font> |
NPR | 03-12 - 03-14 | 39% | 58% | <font color="red">-19%</font> |
NBC/WSJ | 03-10 - 03-13 | 37% | 58% | <font color="red">-21%</font> |
Survey USA | 03-10 - 03-12 | 36% | 60% | <font color="red">-24%</font> |
CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 03-10 - 03-12 | 36% | 60% | <font color="red">-24%</font> |
CBS News | 03-09 - 03-12 | 34% | 57% | <font color="red">-23%</font> |
Pew Research | 03-08 - 03-12 | 33% | 57% | <font color="red">-24%</font> |
AP-Ipsos | 03-06 - 03-08 | 37% | 60% | <font color="red">-23%</font> |
ABC News/Wash Post | 03-02 - 03-05 | 41% | 58% | <font color="red">-17%</font> |
CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 02-28 - 03-01 | 38% | 60% | <font color="red">-22%</font> |
FOX News | 02-28 - 03-01 | 39% | 54% | <font color="red">-15%</font> |
LA Times/Bloomberg | 02-25 - 03-01 | 38% | 58% | <font color="red">-20%</font> |
Rasmussen | 02-24 - 02-26 | 43% | 55% | <font color="red">-12%</font> |
Cook/RT Strategies | 02-23 - 02-26 | 40% | 54% | <font color="red">-14%</font> |
CBS News | 02-22 - 02-26 | 34% | 59% | <font color="red">-25%</font> |
Hotline/FD | 02-16 - 02-19 | 45% | 52% | <font color="red">-7%</font> |
Time | 02-15 - 02-16 | 40% | 54% | <font color="red">-14%</font> |
Rasmussen | 02-13 - 02-15 | 46% | 53% | <font color="red">-7%</font> |
WNBC/Marist | 02-13 - 02-15 | 40% | 57% | <font color="red">-17%</font> |
Battleground | 02-12 - 02-15 | 46% | 52% | <font color="red">-6%</font> |
CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 02-09 - 02-12 | 39% | 56% | <font color="red">-17%</font> |
Gallup | 02-06 - 02-09 | 42% | 55% | <font color="red">-13%</font> |
FOX News | 02-07 - 02-08 | 44% | 47% | <font color="red">-3%</font> |
AP-Ipsos | 02-06 - 02-08 | 40% | 57% | <font color="red">-17%</font> |
Pew Research | 02-01 - 02-05 | 40% | 52% | <font color="red">-12%</font> |
Rasmussen | 01-29 - 01-31 | 48% | 51% | <font color="red">-3%</font> |
NBC/WSJ | 01-26 - 01-29 | 39% | 54% | <font color="red">-15%</font> |
Time | 01-24 - 01-26 | 41% | 55% | <font color="red">-14%</font> |
ABC News/Wash Post | 01-23 - 01-26 | 42% | 56% | <font color="red">-14%</font> |
FOX News | 01-24 - 01-25 | 41% | 51% | <font color="red">-10%</font> |
Cook/RT Strategies | 01-22 - 01-25 | 47% | 50% | <font color="red">-3%</font> |
LA Times/Bloomberg | 01-22 - 01-25 | 43% | 54% | <font color="red">-11%</font> |
CBS News/NY Times | 01-20 - 01-25 | 42% | 51% | <font color="red">-9%</font> |
CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 01-20 - 01-22 | 43% | 54% | <font color="red">-11%</font> |
Rasmussen | 01-16 - 01-18 | 46% | 53% | <font color="red">-7%</font> |
Survey USA | 01-13 - 01-15 | 41% | 56% | <font color="red">-15%</font> |
Hotline/FD | 01-12 - 01-15 | 46% | 53% | <font color="red">-7%</font> |
CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 01-09 - 01-12 | 43% | 53% | <font color="red">-10%</font> |
FOX News | 01-10 - 01-11 | 42% | 49% | <font color="red">-7%</font> |
</div>
Conclusions
Well, our grand tour of my favorite polling site comes to an end. If you share my love of polls I recommend you use the view source commend on you right button, and save this RealClearPolitics table which has the embedded links to just about all 20 or so of the top polling sites. Put them in your favorite places spot in your browser to you can get the straing scoop.
Cheers