hey everybody:
since the STOU is tonight im gonna a do my predictions now then i'll bitch about bush either later tonight or tomorow.
2005
New Jersey-Codey Bows Out
As expected, NJ Acting Governor Richard Codey said this weekend that he won't be running for Governor in 2005. Codey's decision, which (go me!) I predicted correctly the day Congressman Rob Andrews endorsed Senator Jon Corzine leaves Corzine as the Democratic nominee for Governor. With the lackluster GOP field unlikely to get much traction against the popular billionaire, Corzine will very likely be New Jersey's next Governor, barring any suprises. The speculation on who he will appoint to succeed him in the Senate will continue to build in the meantime.
...more after the break
Virginia- Kilgore Hands Kaine Stick to Whack Him With
How stupid can you get? That's a question GOP Attorney General and 2005 candidate for Govenor Jerry Kilgore may be trying to solve. In the last few weeks the Attorney General has come under serious fire for boasting about a voluntary program to watch out for methaphetamine use in the pharmaceutical industry. The only problem is that in most states the program is MANDATORY. So while Kilgore is boasting about doing something on a weaker scale than most other states, his own party is split on doing something about it. That's because Kilgore's own brother, Terry has proposed a mandatory program in the Virginia Legislature which has met stiff opposition from Republicans, including Jerry Kilgore. Why? Well, this can't be proven, but maybe getting $400,000 from the pharmaceutical industry for your campaigns, as well as your top donor being a major pharmacy CEO (John Gregory, ex-CEO of King Pharmaceuticals) could cause you to have some conflicts of interests, eh? As a result, Lt. Governor (and Democratic candidate for Governor) Tim Kaine is using the issue like a club to whack Kilgore as ineffective. Even worse for Kilgore, he gave the club to Kaine for free. Oops...
NYC Mayor- Bloomberg Gets Challenged By His Own Party
Things are not going very well for Mayor Mike (RINO) these days. Not only are his Democratic opponents breathing down his neck, but a strong challenger from his own party is running against him. Tom Ognibene, a former NYC Councilman and a conservative has declared his candidacy for Mayor as a Republican. Bloomberg didn't help the problem by apparently offering Ognibene a job in his administration to avoid a primary! While I doubt Bloomberg would actually lose a primary, the fact remains that he'll have to spend some of his cash just to win the primary, leaving him with less to battle the Democratic nominee.
2006
Florida- Another Democrat has joined the race for Governor in 2006. State Senator Rod Smith, a moderate from Gainesville (in Northern Florida) has announced that his hat is the ring, and he's been endorsed by State Senator Skip Campbell, who's the likely candidate for Chief Financial Officer (essentially State Treasurer). Also running so far is Lawton "Bud" Chiles III, a businessman and the son of the late, beloved Govenrnor Lawton Chiles (1991-1998). Another likely candidate is Congressman Jim Davis of Tampa, along with 2004 US Senate nominee Betty Castor.
In addition, if Katherine Harris (R, FL-13) is going to be running for Senator against incumbent Bill Nelson, she'd better start raising money-fast. The latest FEC report from Harris shows her with less than $100,000 in COH. While Harris had a somewhat competitive race against Democrat Jan Schneider (Harris won with 55%), it's more likely that the money has been spent on helping the GOP elsewhere in the country. As a result, Harris, should she run will find herself at a financial disadvantage against Nelson.
Kansas-Brownback to leave Senate?
Rumor has it that Senator Sam Brownback (R) is being seriously considered to be President Bush's pick to chair the World Bank. Brownback, a two-term Republican who won in 2004 with 69% has been considering a bid for President in 2008, and an international job such as the World Bank might improve his foreign policy credentials. Of course, the interesting thing about all this is that if Brownback leaves the Senate, his successor would be appointed by Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius (until a 2006 special election would be held). If Sebelius appointed a Democrat (as she certainly would), it would give Kansas its first Democratic Senator since George McGill in the 1930's. Possibilities would include the Lt. Governor, John Moore, Congressman Dennis Moore (KS-3), ex-Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Dan Glickman and Jill Docking, 1996 Senate nominee (she lost to Brownback by a relatively close margin). Since both Sebelius and a potential special election would be up in 2006, Kansas might see a very competitive year on the nationwide scale. Of course, it all depends on a little bit of speculation...
Missouri-Three potential Democrats have emerged as challengers to Senator Jim Talent in 2006, according to Roll Call. They are Ex-Governor Roger Wilson, ex-Lt. Governor Joe Maxwell and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Wilson served as Lt. Governor from 1993-2001 (and briefly as Governor when Mel Carnahan died in 2000), Maxwell retired as Lt. Governor in 2004 after a single term, and Carnahan was elected in 2004 as SOS. This will be Missouri's fourth Senate race in four election cycles, and Democrats are looking to even the score in those races.
Montana-Despite rumors to the contrary, Senator Conrad Burns (R) has announced that he will run for reelection in 2006. Burns, who will be 71 in 2006 is considered one of the more vulnerable Republicans in the 2006 cycle, and several strong Democrats exist to challenge him. The most frequently mentioned are Attorney General Mike McGrath, State Senator President John Tester, ex-SOS and current State Senator Mike Cooney and ex-House Speaker Dan Kemmis. With Big Sky Democrats on the upswing (led by Burns' 2000 opponent, Governor Brian Schweitzer), Burns could be in serious trouble in 2006.
Wisconsin-Two Republicans have made it clear that they're running for Governor in 2006 against Democratic incumbent Jim Doyle. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and Congressman Mark Green (WI-8) are both off and running, while House Speaker John Gard is likely to run for Green's seat. Other potential GOP candidates for Green's seat include St. Rep. Terri McCormick, St. Rep. Steve Wieckert, St. Rep. Frank Lasee and ex-Green Bay Mayor Paul Jadin, according to various sources. For the Democrats, State Senator Dave Hansen is the most likely candidate.