It is the 2004 deficit that Bush is promising to cut in half, but
he's not starting with the actual 2004 deficit of $412 billion.
Instead, his benchmark is the projected $521-billion deficit that his Office of Management and Budget estimated a year ago, when the fiscal year was four months old. Using half of that figure, Bush's goal is to reach a deficit of $260.5 billion.
If Bush were to start with the actual 2004 figure, his goal would be a deficit of $206 billion -- $54.5 billion more.
Bush proposes to cut the deficit in half not in dollars but as a share of the economy. If the economy grows, as is projected, then the deficit will decline as a share of the economy even if it does not shrink by a single dollar.
The 2004 deficit was 4.5% of the economy. So in fiscal 2009 it must be 2.2% or less. That is exactly the average share of the last 43 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Finally, the budget that the president will send to Congress will, like his past budgets, omit some major deficit-raising items.
Most of the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will not be included in the budget. Instead, it will be sent to Congress as a supplemental budget request for 2006, just as the administration recently announced an $80-billion supplemental request for the current fiscal year.
Nor will the cost of introducing private investment accounts to Social Security -- $754 billion over the first 10 years alone -- be found in the budget, according to administration
officials.
On the tax side, the budget is not expected to show the effect of its proposal to curb the alternative minimum tax, which is likely to win congressional approval.
This tax, designed to hit wealthy individuals who shelter much of their income from taxes, has been snaring a growing number of taxpayers whose income has merely grown with inflation. Preventing the alternative minimum tax's reach from growing would add $44 billion to the deficit that today's budget will project for 2009, the CBO said.
This guy has gotten to the point where his lies are so habitual that he doesn't even care if anybody calls him on it.
First, notice how two of his largest spending programs - the war and privitization -- are not even mentioned in the budget. This is nothing more then pure bullshit. If you're going to spend it, then you have to account for it.
Second, he starts from a higher projected deficit figure -- the projected deficit from the OMB a year ago. Hell, why just make a number up; that would make more sense.
Third, this percentage of GDP idea is crap. While some economists do use this figure, the percentage of GDP doesn't tell the financial marketes how much the administration needs to borrow. Don't worry, the markets will figure it out. When there is money involved, political ideology goes out the window.
In sum,
How in the hell did people vote for this guy?
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