No other incumbant has been this weak in the year prior to a presidential election. It is going to be a tough fight, but it appears that a Conservative Texan Republican is just too out of step with American values.
http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=10531
February 9, 2004
Bush Deficit in Horse Race Unusual for Incumbents
Only second incumbent to trail at this stage of campaign
by Jeffrey M. Jones
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's most recent trial heat of presidential preferences, from a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll, shows President George W. Bush trailing Massachusetts senator and Democratic front-runner John Kerry by a 53% to 46% margin among likely voters. A review of historical trial-heat data from past elections shows it is rare for an incumbent president to be trailing at this stage in a campaign. At the same time, in the eight elections analyzed here, there have been campaigns in which the incumbent led in February but was defeated for re-election in November. As such, it is hard to draw any inferences as to what Bush's current standing means for his re-election prospects.
Gallup has a long history of asking presidential trial-heat questions in election years. There are comparable data from as far back as 1948 for elections in which an incumbent president was pitted against his eventual challenger in January or February of the election year. While it is not clear at this point who the Democratic nominee will be, Gallup's historical polling shows it is rare for an incumbent to be trailing any named opponent at this early stage in the election year. The only other time an incumbent trailed his eventual challenger (or, for that matter, any other possible opponent tested) at this stage in the campaign was in 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter held a slight edge over incumbent Gerald Ford, 48% to 46%. (Carter eventually defeated Ford in a close election.)
In seven other elections for which there are comparable data, the incumbent president led his eventual challenger when voters were asked in January or February about their current voting intentions. It should be noted that in a few elections in which the incumbent eventually won, such as those of Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996, the incumbent trailed the challenger at some point in trial-heat polls conducted in the year prior to the election year.