In response to Jerome's diary about peaking world oil production and the cost increases inherent in declining supplies, I thought I would talk about what all of this means. The simple explanation of what is really going on is that "cheap" oil is disappearing. We still have an enormous variety of other sources of oil (read about them on
Wikipedia); they are, though, only cost-competitive at higher per-barrel prices. This presents new challenges and new options.
First, there is an enormous amount of oil left in the world; the Developed World's End of Oil Apocalypse, as
this guy is predicting, is almost certainly never going to happen. Don't go start a sovereign commune in the woods just yet.
Secondly, the catastrophic impact of oil consumption being decried by these guys is still extraordinarily grave, depending on how we handle the coming crisis.
I'll start with the bad news. Oil shale, a source of petroleum explored in the 70's, is competitive at prices somewhere above forty dollars a barrel. If we start burning this stuff, global warming will become virtually unstoppable, as the oil age can be continued throughout our lifetimes. Kiss goodbye all populations living near the equator, along with American farm productivity and probably all marine life. Other sources of oil are available that have similar global impact and toxic waste issues, but this is the one that is closest to fruition.
On the other hand, Thermal depolymerization (aka Thermal Conversion Process), a technology that was once thought to have an inevitable energy deficit as it produced less energy in the form of oil than it consumed, can now produce oil at an 80-85% efficiency (fifteen to twenty percent of the energy produced, in the form of natural gas, is used to continue the process). The company that has accomplished this, Changing World Technologies, already has one production plant in Carthage, Missouri.
The reason I favor the promotion of this process over other energy solutions is that this is a currently functional, soon to be profitable (with the increase in oil prices), and completely carbon-neutral way to create oil while processing sewage, garbage, and other waste.
You see, normally, when we throw out organic waste (sewage, manure, meat production offal, vegetable waste, paper, wood, etc.), it just rots. Biodegrading matter releases, in reality, the same greenhouse gasses as combustion. Often, rotting waste is even worse, as it emits methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than the carbon dioxide produced in combustion. Converting organic material that would otherwise cause environmental destruction into oil is merely extracting energy from the material before it is released into the atmosphere. As it now stands, the treatment of different sources of waste requires large amounts of energy, money, and space. Thermal depolymerization would turn these costly activities into a source of productive energy.
Also, the process handles biological waste (mad-cow, hazardous medical garbage, etc.) as well as plastics. Both can become completely sterilized, relatively pure, high grade oil. Right now, plastic releases toxic materials as it degrades in the sun, and it often ends up in lakes, streams, and the ocean, killing wildlife and making fish toxic to humans. All of the PVC's in Lake Michigan could have been converted to usable oil.
Let me make this clear. This is solar energy. Plants use light to convert carbon dioxide into di-oxygen and stored carbon. We take that carbon and eat it, feed it to animals, make buildings and paper with it, and then we dispose of it. Thermal depolymerization simply makes use of the leftover energy, making it less necessary to mine more oil.
Changing over every landfill, sewage treatment plant, and farm to utilize this technology will take an enormous amount of capital, but it is nothing like that required to research, develop, and deploy the much touted "hydrogen economy". Also, it does not require people to buy new cars. And the only byproducts of the conversion process (hydrogen will probably be produced using extremely high temperature nuclear reactors) are oil, natural gas, carbon (mostly graphite that can be used as fertilizer to replace the black topsoil lost to erosion), metals, and treated water.
The only other problem is price. Right now, the average price per barrel of their oil is eighty dollars compared to the new record high of about 54 USD for the "cheap" stuff. This high cost is largely the result of having to pay for turkey offal, as it is still fed to other animals in the US meat and poultry production industry and therefore has monetary value. This is not the case in Europe, which is Changing World Technologies' next target market as a result of regulations banning the practice of feeding animals to animals raised for consumption due to BSE (mad-cow) fears. There, the offal should be free.
Price will come down over time as the method is refined through experience. Also, other sources of waste should be free like, for instance, sewage. Also, if this fuel were taxed at a lower rate than other petroleum products (not all tax cuts are stupid), we could have cheap gas and clean air too. Inevitably, higher prices for oil are coming soon, making this a good option to solve much of our waste, energy, and environmental problems all at once.
Jerome a Paris, in his diary claimed that attitudes and behaviors are not changing. I disagree. People have purchased hybrid cars, an essential technology in making the inescapable future of three-dollar-a-gallon gas feasible, faster than manufacturers predicted possible. More and more, people care about the environment and accept that no war and no oil company will be able to offer us cheap fuel indefinitely.
Therefore, I think that it is time to start championing this new technology to our government and to our country as a viable solution to many of our greatest problems. Our country is filled with ambitious and idealistic people who will pay top dollar and go to extreme lengths to make a better world. All we liberals have to do is show them the best way to make that happen.
Read more about Thermal Depolymerization here.