I am beginning to coax a general idea into a mildly rational thought:
America's economy is its Achilles Heel.
This is a work in progress, but here are my initial thoughts:
- The DOW and NASDAQ is easily spooked.
- The dollar is falling.
- Rumors abound that groups and countries are considering switching to the Euro.
- Ballooning budget deficits forces business and individuals to compete with the government for dollars (or Euros ;) )
- Europe is ascending.
- Asia is potentially ascending, although I wonder if China is in a bubble. I plead ignorance.
- Oil prices. DOW's recent attempt at 11k was blocked by oil concerns.
- Europe has enough market power to block company mergers, even if both companies are American (see Honeywell / GE)
- Bush's diplomatic efforts basically boil down to this: "Fuck you."
America has excellent military power. Military power is deliciously unilateral: I have this weapon. I will kill you. Bush's foreign policy seems to put a lot of weight on this strength. It fits with his "fuck you" isolationist world view.
America also has an excellent economy. The problem, however, is this: economies are inherently multi-lateral. Economies, at the core, measure a system of trades between two or more groups and isolationism is no longer tenable.
So, what happens when a unilateral approach to foreign policy, borrowing heavily from military strength, runs head long into a global economy?
I think we are about to find out, and I am not optimistic.
Is this our future / present?
- Bush continues to piss off everyone, swinging his dick in everyone's face.
- Countries realize they can't discipline the US militarily, so they decide instead to discipline America through economic policy.
- The US economy begins to soften. This could take many, many years.
And WHAT do you think the conservatives would do once they realized that their policies essentially laid the groundwork for America's decline on the economic world stage? Admit they are wrong and try to address their failures?
Bwahwahwhawhahwahwhahwahwhahwahwhahahwahwahwhawh.
No. That would require integrity.
No, if America's economy starts softening, here is what the conservatives will (continue to) do:
- Permanently stall increases in minimum wage (hurts American business)
- Try to kill unions (hurts American business)
- Increase tax cuts to business (stimulate the economy!)
- Increase corporate welfare to business (stimulate the economy)
- Promote isolationism (eliminate dependency on foreign oil/money/fritos, etc.)
I am not Chicken Little. I don't think America's economy is about to collapse, but I worry about a slow and steady stagnation.
This is a work in progress. I hope to start putting together some actual ... facts. :)