Republicans are defending 22 seats, while Democrats are defending 14 seats.
The eleven most competitive races.
1. New York (R-Pataki)
If Gov. Pataki runs for a fourth term, Democratic attorney general Eliot Spitzer will wipe the floor with him. If the extremeley unpopular governor retires, and Rudy Giuliani runs, then it'll be a competitive race. But Giuliani seems more interested in a White House bid. The NY GOP is so pathetic it may end up running former Massachussets governor Bill Weld.
2. Maryland (R-Ehrlich)
Bob Ehrlich squeezed in to the governor's mansion in this solidly Blue state because of the worst campaign ever -- that of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley is extremely popular. A Baltimore Sun poll conducted in April shows O'Malley beating Ehrlich 45-39. O'Malley, however, must still get through a primary with Doug Duncan, the chief executive of Montgomery County.
3. Iowa (D-open seat)
Vilsack is retiring, leaving a competitive seat in a strong two-party state. Rep. Jim Nussle will probably emerge from the Republican primary, and he'll be the favorite in the race. The Democratic nominee will likely be Secretary of State Chet Culver, who trailed to Nussle 41-35 in a May poll.
4. Massachusetts (R-Romney)
Mitt Romney bucked the Blue bent of the state, like his previous since 1991, by winning the governorship. And given the corrupt nature of the state's dominant Democratic Party it's hardly surprising that the state's voters would pick Republicans to balance the massive Democratic legislative advantage in the state.
But Romney has been too conservative for the state as he shores of his creds for a presidential run. A UMass poll from mid-April had "deserves reelection" at 33 percent, while "time for a change" clocked in at 50 percent. Democrat Tom Reilley beat Romney 44-36 in that poll, and Novak reported that Romney is considering skipping a reelection battle altogether to focus on his presidential bid.
5. Georgia (R-Perdue)
The Peach State has been trending hard Red the past few cycles, with the state's Democratic Party decimated in election after election. A Zogby poll last month had Democrat Cathy Cox tied with Perdue well under the 50 percent mark: 43-43.
6. Alabama (R-Riley)
A Mobile Register Poll has Republican incumbent Bob Riley losing to likely Democratic nominee Lucy Baxley 39-35. Baxley is also beating Roy Moore 44-38. Moore is making noise about challenging the unpopular Riley in a primary.
Ironically, Riley is unpopular in large part due to his efforts to fix the state's regressive tax code. His plan would've shifted the burden from low-income people to those earning more. The plan was killed via referendum on the strength of -- you guessed it, low income voters.
7. Arkansas (R-open seat)
Gov. Mike Hukabee is term-limited, and he'll be looking for a promotion to the White House or U.S. Senate. Meanwhile, the GOP will face a primary between Asa Hutchinson and Win Rockefeller. On our side, Attorney General Mike Beebe will be making a strong bid for the state house in a state which is still quite competitive at the state level.
Democrats have made huge gains among Attorney General offices nationwide, providing a strong bench for either governor or congressional races.
8. Florida (R-open seat)
Jeb is term-limited out, leaving the state a lot Redder than when he found it. Also, top Democratic names Betty Castor and Bud Chiles passed on the election. But this is an open seat, and the GOP must contend with a divisive primary.
9. Alaska (R-Murkowski)
Frank Murkowski is extremely unpopular in his state, and rumors abound that he will not run for a second term .The state's economy is a mess and his appointment of daughter Lisa to the senate, while vindicated by her November victory, still chaffes the electorate. However, the Democratic bench is thin in this solidly Republican state, and I've seen no names bandied about from our side of the aisle.
10. California (R-Schwarzenegger)
Ahnold should be looking at a breezy reelection contest, as he swept into office with a solid recall election victory and the advantages of fame and fortune (the voters and press were star-struck). However, he has since proceeded to offend police, fire fighters, teachers, EMT personnel, and nurses. Cute babies and puppies apparently next on his hit list.
His once-stratopheric approval ratings are now below 50 percent, and his formerly expansive agenda has shrunk to a mockery of its former self. Still, Schwarzenegger has a definite charisma (and money) advantage over likely Democratic opponent Phil Angelides.
11. Hawaii (R-Lingle)
Republican Linda Lingle rode corruption in the long-entrenched state Democratic Party to unlikely victory in 2002. A couple of polls last year showed Lingle with solid approval ratings. If she loses, it won't be because of her performance, but because of the state's solid Blue bent. As of now, no Democrat has stepped up to the plate.
Misc
If Tommy Thompson enters the governor's race in Wisconsin, mark this as one of the most endangered Democrats. Seems hard to believe, but Democrats should have breezy reelection contests in Wyoming, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Keep an eye on Blagojevich in Illinois. He's not the most popular guy around, though the GOP has little to throw against him.
The other states: Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, South Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Tennesse, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
And it should go without saying, but it's really early. Some of these races may disappear from the radar screen while others suddenly heat up.
Update: Oops, I guess Schwarzenegger did already go after puppies.