Update [2005-5-20 23:22:28 by Armando]: From the diaries by Armando. Don't know if I agree, think I don't, but it is interesting. But Specter signed the cloture motion today so i don't know what to think.
Adapted from The Next Hurrah
I went to the taping of NPR's Wait Wait Don't Tell Me news quiz show last night (which will be shown tomorrow). I realized, when they had to tape two possible endings, the degree to which we're all just talking out of our rear ends, trying to predict what will happen:
"Moderates reached a compromise." Peter Sagal said. Then, "The GOP launched the nuclear option to prevent the Democrats from filibustering the judges."
The best indication of what will happen, in my opinion, is Arlen Specter's speech this morning. I'm not sure, but I think he gave Frist an ultimatum: make a deal, or the moderates will take over.
In the clip at the link, he seems to be simultaneously calling on Frist to take a public whip count of the Senators. And threatening that "12 Senators will take over the Senate" if he doesn't. Here are some excerpts from the speech (transcription errors are my own):
I have urged the majority leader Bill Frist to do a whip count among Republicans. ... So you know how the vote will turn out. ... If the whip count were to be conducted, we might know in advance what the result would be. ... So much of what we're engaged in today is really a matter of saving face.
Specter goes on:
What I think needs to be done is the issue ought to be returned to the Senate. It ought to be returned to the 100 Senators of this body. If the leaders don't
release their members to vote their conscience, ... then a small group of Senators will take over the Senate.
To be honest, I'm not sure if this is an ultimatum or not; I encourage you all to check out the link and let me know what you think. Ostensibly, Specter is calling for a whip count on Owen's nomination. But that only makes sense if Specter honestly believes she wouldn't get 50 votes to pass, which I have a difficult time believing.
When I first heard this speech, though, and the more general intent I think Specter was trying to get across, was the challenge, "give us a whip count of the votes to abolish the filibuster."
Like I said, I can't quite figure it out. But if Specter stood on the Senate floor today and called for Frist to take a public count of the Republican votes for and against the filibuster, then I believe he was trying to open up space in the debate that currently doesn't exist. Here's my thinking.
Specter probably knows better than anyone at this point what the true vote count is. And if he's calling for a whip count of Republicans, then I have to believe that, right now, Frist doesn't have the votes. Specter, after all, is trying to prevent the nuclear option. But if Frist were to discover that he had the votes, there is no way you could stop him from launching it. And if Specter wanted to prevent Frist from launching the nuclear option, the last thing he would do is allow Frist's conservative supporters to see that he had the votes. There would be no better way to force Frist to launch it, because as soon as James Dobson saw the votes were there (particularly if he knew who was voting how), he would demand Frist push the issue.
No. If Specter was really calling for a public whip count of the votes on the nuclear option and if he is really trying to prevent it, then I believe he 1) knows Frist doesn't have the votes and 2) was trying to show Frist's supporters that the GOP doesn't have the votes.
Frist's supporters will never let him back off if they think they might win this. But if they see they will lose it, then they may try to salvage something out of the situation. They may accept one of the face-saving compromises the 12 moderate Senators are trying to craft. Only if Frist is forced to see (and to have it be seen) that he has no chance of winning this will he consider the compromises on the table.
Specter's message seems to be, by all rights, the whole Senate should decide this. This is your chance to get a sense of the Senate and let it decide. But if you don't do that, then we will take it over.
(Thanks to Brian Hopkins at DemBloggers.com for the clip--and definitely check out their site for highlights of many of the best speeches)