A handful of diaries have covered briefly the Virginia Primary today, but I wanted to provide a summary of the races that will be settled today. Polls are just about to close and returns should come in online at this site:
http://sbe.vipnet.org/
This morning I voted in the Republican Primary despite my Democratic leanings. I didn't really care about the Republican primary for Lt. Governor or Attorney General, I hope that the Democratic nominee will defeat those wingnuts in a landslide. But I was impressed with the
Mayor of Warrenton, George Fitch, who is also known as the former coach of the Jamaican Bobsled team. Several here may remember the controversy when the State Democratic Party decided to keep the list of voters from previous primary elections from challengers of incumbents in Democratic primaries. Others may disagree with the anointing of candidates like Casey even before the primary. Well in Virginia the GOP did the same thing, anointing Jerry Kilgore as the nominee before the primary. George Fitch was totally ignored by Kilgore, and my vote for Fitch was just one way to protest their actions. I know Fitch is socially conservative, but in Virginia so are many Democrats. More importantly he's shown a commitment to the issue that is most important to me, the environment, that is above and beyond what I'd expect from most Democrats.
But enough that, on to the races.
Assuming that Kilgore will defeat Fitch, let's turn to the two other state wide primaries for the GOP.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Right now it's Kilgore with 82.08% to Fitch with 17.92%. Landslide.
- State Senator Bill Bolling from the Richmond area is facing off against Northern Virginian Sean Connaughton for Lt. Governor. Typically Richmond outvotes Northern Virginia in the GOP primary, but rumor is turnout is even lower than expected in Richmond and is higher than expected in Northern Virginia. But the turnout in Nova for the GOP is most likely an anti-tax revolt against moderate Republicans, not the sort to vote for Sean Connaughton. I'm still expecting Bolling to win, but it could be close. He's generally your typical knee-jerk anti-tax social crusader.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Bolling at 62.89% to Connaughton's 37.11%.
- Richmond attorney Steve Baril is running against Delegate Robert F. McDonnell of Virginia Beach for Attorney General. Low turnout in Richmond is going to hurt Baril, and a handful of contested Republican Primaries down ballot in Tidewater may push McDonnell over the edge. I've had several discussions with friends trying to figure out who the conservative and who the moderate is in this race. In the end, I'd say that both are conservative and crazy.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: McDonnel wins this 60.66% to 39.34% for Baril.
GOP Ticket in Virginia: Kilgore-Bolling-McDonnell
GOP House of Delegates Primaries-
24th- [Central Virginia] Incumbent Preston Bryant is facing off against long shot challenger Robert Garber.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Bryant at 74%.
30th- [Central Virginia] Incumbent Ed Scott against VCAP (Virginia Conservative Action PAC, which means Political Action Committee, so they have Action in there twice) endorsed challenger Mark Jarvis. One of the few primaries centering around the support of Warner's tax reform by some moderate Republicans.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Results are just starting to come in, but Scott is ahead 58.87%
33rd- [Northern Virginia] VCAP also endorses challenger Chris Oprison against Joe May, but this is a longer shot. This district covers the same area as Russ Pott's Senate Seat, and in the last primary Russ Potts was almost knocked off (he won by less than 100 votes IIRC) by a VCAP backed candidate. If several incumbents go down tonight, May will be one of them.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: May's at 63.46%, so far so good for him.
35th- [Northern Virginia] Three Republicans have stepped up to face off against first term Democrat Steve Shannon: Ed Robinson, Jim Hyland, and Arthur Purves. Ed Robinson has the money, Jim Hyland the record, and neither one seems able to take out Shannon.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Hyland and Robinson are neck to neck, too close to call.
37th- [Northern Virginia] The hotly contested election to try to take back the seat that Chap Petersen took a few years back. John Mason against Jim Kaplan, with Mason having a slight edge. Don't know much about the candidates, but I think Mason's the stronger of the two.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Mason is ahead in early returns, but it's early.
41st- [Northern Virginia] Retirement has created an open seat that is being contested between Michael Golden and Bill Finnerfrock. They will go on to face Democrat David Marsden, who is a former aide to Republican Governor Jim Gilmore. Yes, you read that right. Our strongest Democratic candidate in the district is a former Republicans. ::sigh::
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: No news.
50th- [Northern Virginia] Hopeless attempt by VCAP to knock off Harry Parrish. Challenger is Steve Chapman.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: No news.
54th- [Central Virginia] Another VCAP race, incumbent Bobby Orrock will most likely be knocked off by challenger Shaun Kenney. Safe Republican seat in the fall however.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Orrock wins.
55th- [Central Virginia] Rod Clemmons doesn't have a chance against incumbent Frank Hargrove.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Nothing yet.
67th- [Northern Virginia] Perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent, Gary Reese is being targeted by VCAP with Christian youth minister Chris Craddock. This will also most likely be a toss up in the fall, especially if Craddock wins. The Democrats have a strong candidate in Chuck Caputo. Today during voting it looked like there was strong turnout in support of Chris Craddock, who exclaimed (I am serious) "Jesus has brought these voters to me".
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: No real returns yet, but word is that it's Craddock by a lot.
82nd- [Virginia Beach] Not really a contest, Bob Purkey will walk over challenger Peter Schmidt.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Nada.
83rd- [Virginia Beach] See above, but the names are different. Leo Wardrup is the incumbent and he'll be defeating challenger Delceno Miles.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Nada.
The Democrats have only one statewide primary, Lt. Governor, and fewer House of Delegate primaries. Right now it looks like Leslie Byrne of Fairfax or Delegate Chap Petersen of Fairfax will win it, although I wouldn't rule out Delegate Viola Baskerville of Richmond. I would rule out State Senator Phillip Puckett of Russell County in Southwest Virginia. I want to talk about the House of Delegate primaries quickly to give you an idea where turnout will be high before talking about the Lt. Governor race.
37th- [Northern Virginia] Chap Petersen is vacating the seat to run for Lt. Governor. Two Democrats are running: David Bulova and Janet Oleszek. Very close race, but looks like Bulova may have the advantage. Winner will most likely face another competitive race in the fall. Turnout here would most likely help Petersen and Byrne (she also has represented the area).
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Bulova is ahead 57% but it's still early.
45th- [Northern Virginia] Marian Van Landingham is retiring and there's a large field of six candidates running to replace her. Safe Democratic district though. Turnout helps the two from Nova.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Looks like Englin is going to win this, he was popular among some on the blogosphere.
57th- [Central Virginia] Safe Democratic district with incumbent Mitch Van Yahres retiring. David Toscano, who's been a member of the City Council and Mayor of Charlottesville, is favored to win. Hard to say if turnout helps anyone here.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Toscano's going to win this, 57% right now.
71st- [Central Virginia] Open safe Democratic seat because incumbent Violla Baskerville is running for Lt. Governor. Melvin Law, with ties to Doug Wilder, has a lot of momentum, despite Baskerville's support of Jennifer McClellan. Obviously favors Baskerville, but I'd say that Byrne, who has received several endorsements from the minority community, is also helped.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Early returns favor McClellan by a lot, but we'll see.
74th- [Central Virginia] Incumbent Floyd Miles faces off against Don McEachin. This used to be McEachin's seat before he ran for Attorney General in 2001. Minority district, plus for Baskerville and Byrne.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Miles is holding on, but it's close so far with few precints in.
75th- [Southside] Incumbent Jim Councill isn't running for another term, leaving this safe Democratic district open for his son, Jim Councill, to run for. Four other Democrats are also running however. Generally a rural and conservative area, may be the only place that will help Puckett.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: RC Tyler, who I know nothing about, is ahead right now.
90th- [Tidewater] Incumbent Algie Howell, who created the 'Droopy Drawers' bill that got so much attention, is being challenged by Keela Boose. Howell has beaten Boose before when he first ran for this two years ago when it was an open seat created by Winsome Sears stepping down to focus on her run against Bobby Scott. Minority district favors Baskerville and Byrne.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]:: Howell is narrowly ahead 53-46.
With three minority districts up for grabs I'd expect minority turnout to be rather good and this will help Baskerville. If Byrne and Petersen do end up splitting Northern Virginia it could be enough for her to win. I cannot see Puckett winning, it would be a real surprise.
Most people are thinking that either Petersen or Byrne will win. I tend to agree. I think the main question will be how does Byrne perform against Baskerville and how does she perform against Petersen. It is likely that across the rest of the state Petersen will be favored. Byrne will not only need to do well against Petersen in Northern Virginia, but build up enough votes among the minority community to compensate for his strength elsewhere in the state. Or that's how I look at it.
Well, I'll most likely update at the night progresses.
Update [2005-6-14 20:30:22 by LoganFerree]::
44% of the precints reporting in Lt. Governor race
Byrne 17,214 32.18%
Baskerville 12,891 24.10%
Puckett 11,789 22.04%
Petersen 11,597 21.68%
Petersen is doing a lot worse than many expected, looks like Byrne has it.
Democratic ticket: Kaine-Byrne-Deeds
My prediction for the fall:
Kaine (D) defeats Kilgore (R)
Bolling (R) defeats Byrne (D)
Deeds (D) defeats McDonnell (R)