So the Flag Burning Amendment passed the
House today, as it has done several times over the past 15 years or so. The leaves the Senate as the next line of defense for the first amendment. Recent reports suggest that the Senate is dangerously close to reaching the 67 votes needed to pass this abomination. So let's do the math.
In 2000, the Senate voted on a similar amendment by a 63-37 vote. Of the 100 Senators today, 71 of them also participated in the 2000 vote. Their votes broke down 42-29 in favor.
Of the 29 current Senators who did not participate in the 2000 vote, 19 of them are now Flag Amendment cosponsors. That puts the amendment at 61 votes in favor, assuming all the Yes votes from 2000 remain that way today.
Of the ten senators who did not vote in 2000 and are not cosponsors of the amendment today, all are Democrats, three of them from red states and seven from blue ones:
New Senators, Non-sponsors from Red States
Pryor (AR)
Salazar (CO)
BillNelson (FL)
New Senators, Non-sponsors from Blue States
Carper (DE)
Obama (IL)
Stabenow (MI)
Dayton (MN)
Corzine (NJ)
Clinton (NY)
Cantwell (WA)
Of the 29 Senators who voted No in 2000 and are still in the Senate today, three of them are Republicans, one independent, and five are Democrats from red states.
Republican No votes from 2000
McConnell (KY)
L.Chafee (RI)
Bennett (UT)
Independent No vote from 2000
Jeffords (VT)
Democratic No votes from 2000 from a Red state
Harkin (IA)
Bingaman (NM)
Conrad (ND)
Dorgan (ND)
Byrd (WV)
The remaining 20 Senators are all Democrats from Blue states, but some are often regarded as "centrist" DLC Democrats.
Democratic No votes from 2000 from a Blue state
Boxer (CA)
Dodd (CT)
Lieberman (CT)
Biden (DE)
Akaka (HI)
Inouye (HI)
Durbin (IL)
Mikulski (MD)
Sarbanes (MD)
Kennedy (MA)
Kerry (MA)
Levin (MI)
Lautenberg (NJ)
Schumer (NY)
Wyden (OR)
Reed (RI)
Leahy (VT)
Murray (WA)
Feingold (WI)
Kohl (WI)
Anyone not listed either voted Yes in 2000 or is a New Senator who is also a cosponsor of the amendment this time around. So are there definitely 34 safe "No" votes?
There are 39 Senators listed above. Amendment opponents can afford to lose 5 of them, but if we lose 6, then the amendment will pass. So McConnell, Bennett and Byrd can flip, Salazar and BillNelson can vote Aye and it will still fail. Add in Pryor and it will pass.
Update [2005-6-22 20:9:18 by DaveOinSF]: From Citizen Flag Alliance, we have the following information
New Senators who will vote Yes:
Salazar BillNelson Stabenow Dayton
New Senators who will vote No:
Pryor Carper Corzine Clinton Cantwell
New Senatos with unknown vote:
Obama
None of the 2000 No votes seem to switch