The Zogby poll has Bush declining from 46% one month ago and 50% four months ago. With Bush at 44% today there is still room to fall.
Bush is rated as excellent on terrorism by 20% and while social issues were not included in this poll generally approximately 10% rate social issues as their top issue. Bush has a floor of approximately 30% - 35% in my view.
More below the fold:
Bush is currently rated as excellent by 15%, good by 29%, fair by 22% and poor by 34%. This is interesting because in almost every poll the poor or strongly disapprove number is consistently at 35% (approximately).
If you see the strongly disapprove/poor number grow above 35% it means a real change has taken place. Rassmussen has the strongly disapprove number at 35% today.
Zogby has Bush's ratings in the below catagories at:
Terrorism - 49% approve 50% disapprove
Iraq - 39% approve 61% disapprove
Taxes - 36% approve 62% disapprove
Foreign Policy - 36% approve 61% disapprove
Jobs/Economy - 35% approve 65% disapprove
Education - 33% approve 64% disapprove
Environment - 30% approve 66% disapprove
Social Security - 27% approve 69% disapprove
For the first time Bush has a negative rating on terrorism.
The Republican congress is rated 26% positive with 71% negative - in blue states it is only 20% positive and 73% negative.
This is really good news for our side - in my view Bush's personal popularity with some is keeping his overall numbers up, but the congress' ratings are more in line with Bush's ratings on policy.
This means people are unhappy with policy proposals coming out of Washington DC.
What I also find interesting is that Bush is now unpopular in red states:
Red states - 48% approve 51% disapprove
Blue States - 39% approve 62% disapprove
This is big because in states that barely went to Bush like Nevada and Missouri they may be looking for a change and may look to Dems for the Senate.
In addition, McCain is shown to defeat anyone on the Democratic side, which in my view is because he is more of a pragmatist and more moderate on social issues - I don't think he can win the primary however.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1005
What I would really like to see is a state-by-state poll. My guess is that changes in opinion are occurring in the swing states, but that is only a guess.