I was wondering why, if there are so many Iraqi troops (165,000), can't at least some more US troops come home?
I also wondered why, if there are so many Iraqi troops, Bush can't mention withdrawls even though the total number of troops would be rising.
The Message
Bush says he can't talk about troop withdrawls because
"that would send the wrong message". I disagree.
Unofficial projections are that 140,000 Iraqi troops will
be operational by next summer. That is more troops than the US
has in Iraq today. Surely some US soldiers could come home
then.
Let's say 40,000 US troops could come home based on that
increase in Iraqi forces. Bush could say "We expect Iraqi troop
levels to increase to as many as 140,000 by next summer.
If that happens, we think 40,000 of our troops could
come home, leaving a powerful mixed force of
235,000 troops defending Iraq, almost twice the number
there right now.
That would be a powerful message to the insurgency. A sign
that as the US does leave, troop levels will actually
be rising. I would think that would be a devestating thought
to an insurgent.
I think Bush doesn't say this because he doesn't
envision an end to the war. The war has propped up his presidency
and, of course, the war will be it's downfall. Bush doesn't really
want the war to end.
Where is the training really at?
It appears that there are 165,000 Iraqi troops. And
about 75,800 are "trained and equipped". So why aren't
Americans comming home right now?
There are only about 7,700 operational army right now.
Not enough to replace very many Americans. This is the
real reason the troops can't come home. In almost two years
we've only managed to get 7,700 operational.
The question is why are 75K trained, but only 8K are
operational? It isn't training. It isn't equipment.
Are they on leave? I'd like to know.
My best guess by reading between the numbers, is that
the trained and equipped applies mostly to the police officers,
not the regular army. The "troops" numbers are a combination
of army and paramilitary police. It's a lot easier to equip a police unit
than an army batallion.
It looks very likely that we have a lot of freshly
trained Iraqi soldiers sitting around waiting for
equipment, leadership, logistics, and organization. And why would it be
so hard to deliver that, given the billions budgeted
for it and the massive defense industry eager
for government money?
Counting Troops
It would be much easier to count the troops if the
administration used consistent terminlogy and released the
numbers together on a regular basis. But they don't. I suspect
that is intentional.
Iraqi Troops:
May 18:
Total Troops: 165,000
Trained and Equipped: 75,800
Troops in Operational Battalions: 7,700
Next Summer:
Total Troops: 270,000
Operational Army: 140,000
Training Time (boot camp):
Veterans of Saddam: 3 weeks
Newbies: 8 weeks
Insurgency:
Killed or captured: 15,000
Hard-core fighters: 6,000-9,000
US Troops:
In Iraq:
Total Operational: 135,000
Army: 81,000
Guard/Reserve: 54,000
Wounded & Evacuated: 30,000
Worldwide:
Army: 499,000
Guard/Reserve: 700,000
References:
As Iraqi Army Trains,
Word in the Field Is It May Take Years
A Report Card on Iraqi Troops
U.S. to Pull 15,000 Troops Out of Iraq
The Draft: Between Iraq and a Hard Place
General: U.S. likely to cut troops in Iraq by '06
THE SIZE OF THE U.S. ARMY