We don't often get good NJ Senate news, because Corzine's bid for Governor overshadows all the speculation on who will replace Corzine (or run in 2006), assuming Corzine wins. The
Star Ledger reported today that Acting Governor Richard Codey (D) has expressed an interest in being appoint by Corzine to his Senate seat if Corzine wins. This puts Codey in direct competition with New Jersey's seven Democratic congressmen, who are all hoping to be appointed. Whoever Corzine appoints will serve for less than one year, before facing election in November 2006.
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Corzine hasn't revealed his intentions yet, and he won't. All seven House Dems are campaiging for him because they hope for the appointment. Corzine must choose between appointint a caretaker, who would not run for re-election, and a candidate who could run a strong campaign in November. The article suggests that Codey is more likely to be a caretaker than a career Senator.
There are problems with both arrangments. If Corzine appoints one of the seven Democratic Reps, he will definitely run for re-election. This will cause problems between Corzine and the remaining six. Of the seven, Rep. Robert Menendez seems to be the favorite for the appointment. The third-ranking Democrat in the House, he is powerful and popular, and would probably win re-election to the Senate in November. Another possibility, while unlikely, is that another Rep. challengers whoever Corzine appoints. If Corzine is going to apppoint someone with the intention of them getting re-elected, he must insure that they will not be challenged, because that will result in a tough primary that would be great to avoid.
If Corzine appoints a caretaker, he can avoid strife among the Congressmen. However, without an incumbent, several of the Reps are likely to enter the race, resulting in a brutal primary. Furthermore, State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. (R), son of former Gov. Tom Kean (R), has already entered the race and begun campaigning. New Jersey will support moderate Republicans (Christie Todd Whitman...), and Kean could have a good shot at the Open Seat.
I hope Corzine appoints Menendez. I'd prefer upsetting some Congressen to losing the advantages of semi-incumbency. Menendez would make a great Senator, and while appointing Codey as a caretaker would be an easy way out for Corzine, it would hurt our chances of retaining this seat.
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