Yesterday, as I pointed out
here, it seems more than probable that Novak learned of Valerie Plame from someone on AF-1 during the flight to Africa. The question is: Who got that information from AF-1 to Novak and how?
To eliminate other possible sources of his information and other leakers, consider these facts:
- We now know that the State Department memo contained highly sensitive information about Ms. Plame, marked "no foreign eyes". The handling of documents of this nature normally entails significant efforts to guarantee their integrity during transportation. They are not generally faxed, but hand delivered to the authorized recipient. It would then seem unlikely that the document was seen by unauthorized personnel during its trip from Richard Armitage to Colin Powell. Hence, we can assume, with a certain degree of confidence, that the State Department memo was not seen on July 7, 2003 by persons who were not aboard AF-1. Both Karl Rove and Scooter Libby have testified that they never saw the document before it was shown to them during their grand jury testimony. Those statements are believable. However, that does not mean that they were not apprised of the contents on July 7.
- Ari Fleischer has testified that he did not see the contents of the State Department memo. In fairness, a fellow passenger on AF-1 has testified to seeing Fleischer handling the document. But, for the sake of argument, let's assume that Fleischer did not perjure himself. He was on his way out, leaving White House employment July 14, so why would he want to get involved in something as potentially messy as what has transpired?
- Dan Bartlett has testified that he did not know who Valerie Plame was. Had he read the State Department memo, that would make him a perjurer. So, let's give him the benefit of the doubt, too.
- Novak's information, as told to a friend of Wilson's on July 8, contains a radioactive marker that leads back to the State Department memo, which is the only known source for the false claim that Ms. Plame sent her husband to Niger.
Who was on the flight, besides Fleischer and Bartlett? The main actors are Bush, Powell and probably Rice, who people seem to think was there, but I have not been able to confirm that information. The flight list does not seem to be readily available and the photos of the Africa trip that I have seen do not show her.
Would Colin Powell be inclined to go after the Wilson's? Perhaps. He carried the Niger message to the UN, to his disgrace. But, he was also an outsider in the administration, according to popular wisdom and, perhaps, reluctant to participate in a smear campaign.
That leaves two people, who are very close to each other, as prime suspects for initiating the smear campaign and being primarily responsable for divulging sensitive information - President George W. Bush and National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice. Of these two, the most likely suspect, based on an analysis of hierarchical reporting lines is Bush. Why?
- Bush could call Rove directly and give him the information about Ms. Plame and ask for advice on how to use it.
- Bush could then call Cheney and, on Rove's advice, tell Cheney to put his Chief of Staff, Scooter Libby, on a task force with Rove to get the information into the press.
- Cheney tells Libby to work with Rove.
Thus, we arrive at a conspiracy involving at least Bush, Cheney, Rove and Libby. There are possibly other co-conspirators, such as Judith Miller, but this foursome is enough to bring down the government.