With four days left before the nonpartisan Mayoral Primary, Freeman Hendrix still maintains a
ten-point lead over incumbent Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. The top two finishers will face off in November, where Hendrix holds a commanding lead over the Mayor.
In the poll of 400 likely Detroit voters taken July 25-27, Hendrix had 38% of the vote, followed by Kilpatrick with 28%, City Councilwoman Sharon McPhail with 11% and state Sen. Hansen Clarke with 8%. The poll by EPIC/MRA has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Hendrix, Kilpatrick and Clarke have gained support since the firm conducted a poll earlier this month; McPhail slipped.
There was some good news for Kilpatrick, however. His favorability ratings have increased from 32% in late May to 41% this week.
But in a head-to-head matchup between Hendrix and Kilpatrick, 55% said they would vote for Hendrix, compared with 34% for Kilpatrick. In another question, 22% of respondents said they would vote for Kilpatrick, while 65% said they would vote to replace him or vote for someone else.
The significance of the primary numbers is that no incumbent Mayor has finished in second place in at least 60 years. What is also significant is that, after wave of police and firefighter layoffs, Kilpatrick still has a chance to make up the 10% with the organizational advantage any Mayor comes to the race with.
My personal hunch is that, on Tuesday night, Hendrix and Kilpatrick will finish neck and neck. November, however, will be a different ball game as there will be no one to siphon off votes frm each other. That is when I expect the past four years to finally take their toll and Hendrix to trounce Kilpatrick.