If you've ever spent any time in Pacific coastal waters, you've probably seen this: massive groups of seabirds drifting on the surface of the ocean. These groups, known as rafts, float miles offshore, feasting on sea life that feeds on plankton. It's an impressive site, seeing these thousands of birds drifting together; an impressive reminder of the power of nature. But this year, these birds, like the proverbial canaries in the coal mine, are dying off in massive amounts.
Oregon
Roy Lowe, Project Leader for the Oregon Coast National Wildlife Complex of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, reported Wednesday that during the past week the number of dead and dying Common Murres washing ashore along Oregon's beaches has "increased dramatically."
---
The die-off appears to involve adult birds, Lowe stated, and is likely the result of stress due to a lack of food associated with unusually low oceanic productivity along the West Coast this year.
Common Murre
California
In San Luis Obispo County and all along the Pacific Coast, marine biologists are spotting ominous signs this year: higher ocean temperatures close to shore, plummeting catches of groundfish, an explosion of dead birds on coastal beaches, and, perhaps most disturbing,
very few plankton -- the tiny critters that form the basis of the ocean's intricate food web.
From California to British Columbia, unusual weather patterns have disrupted the marine ecosystem, scientists say. The normal northerly winds failed to show up this year, preventing the usual upwelling of colder water that sustains the plankton, and in turn, many other species -- from anchovies to cormorants to whales.
---
Is this just a strange year, or is this what global warming looks like? Few scientists are willing to blame the plankton collapse on the worldwide rise in temperatures attributed to carbon dioxide and other gases believed to trap heat in the earth's atmosphere. Yet few are willing to rule it out.
---
If these patterns continue, it could show that something in the atmosphere -- and the Pacific Ocean -- has permanently changed, with serious consequences for coastal birds, fish and marine mammals.
"These natural changes can teach us a lot about what might happen if global warming came along," said Francisco Chavez, an oceanographer at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. "That global change is going to affect the ocean is a given. We just don't know how or what the effects will be."
It may be just an unusual year. Similar ecological signs have appeared during El Niño years, when increased sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific alter weather patterns worldwide. But scientists say the West Coast hasn't had El Niño conditions this year.
Seabirds are clearly distressed. On the Farallon Islands west of San Francisco, researchers this spring noted a steep decrease in nesting cormorants as well as a 90 percent drop in Cassin's auklets -- the worst in more than 35 years of monitoring. The relatively rare birds, which feed mostly on krill, have since returned but came too late for successful breeding this year, said Jaime Jahnke, a researcher with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory.
"We don't know what's going on," Jahnke said. "If this is the result of some kind of large climate phenomenon that we don't know about, it's important to document it and understand what's causing it."
Washington State
On Washington state's Tatoosh Island, common murres -- a species so sensitive to disruptions that scientists consider it a harbinger of ecological change -- started breeding nearly a month late. It was the longest delay recorded in 15 years of monitoring, said Julia Parrish, a seabird ecologist at the University of Washington, Seattle.
Entire West Coast
More disturbingly, researchers have reported a sharp increase in dead birds washing up on the shores of California, Oregon and Washington.
Along Monterey Bay, there are four times as many dead birds such as Cassin's auklets, common murres and Brandt's cormorants than in most years, said Hannah Nevins, a marine scientist at Moss Landing Marine Laboratories.
"Basically, they're not finding enough food, and they use up the energy that's stored in their muscles, liver and body fat," Nevins said. "It's a level of mortality that's significantly above our long-term average over the last seven years."
On the Oregon and Washington coasts, volunteers found one dead Brandt's cormorant every 1.3 kilometers, compared with every 50 kilometers in most years, and logged a sixfold increase in common murre mortality, Parrish said.
"The bottom has fallen out of the coastal food chain, and there's just not enough food out there," Parrish said. "We're seeing these stress signals. (The birds) are delaying breeding, they're abandoning their colonies and they're washing up on beaches. They're basically dying. They're way stressed out."
Plankton!
Effects on Fish
Fish appear to be feeling the effects, too. NOAA surveys show a 20 percent to 30 percent drop in juvenile salmon off the coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia this June and July, compared with the average count over the previous six years.
And researchers counted the lowest number of juvenile rockfish in more than 20 years of monitoring in Central and Northern California -- fewer than 100 caught between San Luis Obispo and Fort Bragg this year, compared with "several thousand" last year, said National Marine Fisheries Service biologist Keith Sakuma.
"This year was the worst year ever because the rockfish depend on the upwelling," Sakuma said.
Of course, should you ever bring this up with a naysayer, you will be roundly mocked for giving a shit about the continued existence of a seabird, much less a microscopic creature like plankton. Many news reports on this phenomenon carry the statement that "most scientists are unwilling to attribute the changes to global warming". I can understand that reluctance; the scientific method requires the collection and analysis of data before reaching conclusions. But I'm sure there is some reluctance on the part of the scientific community to sound an alarm; whenever they do they are uniformly bashed as lunatics by elements of the popular culture with interests in stopping change. All of that will be meaningless if this trend takes hold...