Cross-posted from
OurSenate:
A new
Strategic Vision (GOP) poll shows Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) leading Safeco CEO Mike McGavick 46%-38%. While this may seem to be a dangerously small lead, remember that this is a GOP poll. Therefore, her lead is probably significantly larger. With a 3% margin or error, Cantwell's lead is proably around 11%. However, McGavick probably has lower name recognition that Cantwell at this point in the campaign, so it is likely that McGavick will reduce this margin significantly as he begins his campaign.
Considering that Cantwell won her 2000 election by less than 1%, I think that she is in pretty good shpe right now. However, she only has a 47-36 approval/disapproval rating. With re-elect numbers below 50, Cantwell is still going to have to campaign hard to win re-election, but her eight point (at least!) lead, she should ultimately be able to win.
Are there any Kos readers in WA who can tell us anything about McGavick's local support? He seems to be the NRSC choice...
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