As some of you might know, Prime Minister Koizumi
recently dissolved Japan's Parliament and is holding emergency elections on September 11th. What could this mean for the War in Iraq? See below the fold.
So, the whole crisis in Japan right now is over the privatization of the Postal Service (and not the band, I believe they're private already). Koizumi has been pushing this hard, and it barely passed the Lower House (traditionally the more powerful house; the Prime Minister is always elected from the Upper House, though), and failed in the Upper House. To set an example of what happens to LDP (Liberal Democratic Party, supermajority) members who don't follow orders, Koizumi dissolved the Lower House and is calling emergency elections. Okay, enough babble. Why does this matter?
First off, the LDP is going to hold its majority. I've seen speculation that the main opposition, the Democratic Party, will capture ground, but that ain't what what the polls are saying. If they did capture enough ground, it would mean pulling out significant Japanese support (financial and legitimacy-wise) from the Iraq War. They are one of our steadfast allies. But that can be dismissed easily, I think.
In fact, I think it will go the other way. Koizumi has said he intends to keep this election focused exclusively on the Post, ignoring other issues. I've speculated on my blog(/shameless whore) that he might be using his support on privatization to sneak in the equivalent of stealth candidates, who would be more hawkish on rearming Japan than the general public might realize. The most likely result of this election might in fact be renewed and strengthened Japanese support on the war. And the last thing I think we want is an increased aura of respectability or legitimacy around the war, so this election might be a thing to watch. I think that when Americans support is turning against the Iraq War, a foreign power coming out in clear support of it and possibly committing more troops could do a surprising amount.
Just to make this clear, this is only speculation. Koizumi really could mean this election to be about the postal service (or The Postal Service), I just doubt it.